Mostly Dry Work Week But More Rain & Possible Noreaster Conditions Weekend

Mostly Dry Work Week But More Rain & Possible Noreaster Conditions Weekend

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Mostly Dry Work Week But More Rain & Possible Noreaster Conditions Weekend

The week begins in holiday mode with today being Columbus Day as well as Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Speaking of Canada and more specifically Eastern Canada we have a large upper air storm system that is sitting nearly stationary and just rotating round and round. Each rotation brings what I would describe as a bicycle spoke of clouds and even some scattered showers but Eastern Pennsylvania lies just far enough south that it will probably not have to worry too much.

The cold unstable air aloft will probably mean we will see some self destructive sunshine today but it should be a bit less self destructive than yesterday. It is going to be a very cool day with high temperatures much like yesterday. Some places north and west of the coast will probably not get out of the 50s while the warmest spots and urban areas will reach lower 60s at best. Other than an isolated passing shower, most of you will be dry all day long.

SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES

storm free

WEATHER RADAR

storm free

We don’t see any issues tonight as skies should be partly to mostly clear. Most lows overnight will be in the 40s with warmer urban centers closer to 50. Tuesday we should start to see temperatures bounce a little higher as the atmosphere stabilizes somewhat. We think it should be partly sunny for Tuesday. There is the far outside chance for a passing brief shower. High temperatures however will reach the 60s everywhere.

The influence of the upper air storm in Eastern Canada will lessen some Wednesday which should allow for more in the way of sunshine. Temperatures Wednesday will warm up a little more and be perhaps a little above average for this time of year. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s.

Moving along into Thursday and Friday we begin to see the set up developing for the weekend and it is not a good one. We have seen 5 straight weekends of rain on one or both days and we have only had 3 weekends since June which have been completely rain free. The trend of potentially nasty weather weekends continues.

There is still some fine tuning we have to contend with here but we can say that Thursday should be fine with some sunshine and highs reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s South Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania south but it will be cooler as you head north with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s from Northeast Pennsylvania to Southern New England.

Friday sees sunshine giving way to arriving clouds as strong high pressure builds across Eastern and Central Canada. Low pressure heads out of the Plains and across the Ohio Valley. Blocking forces the low to re-develope somewhere off the Delaware New Jersey coast during Saturday and only very slowly move eastward.

There are still some timing issues regarding when the rain begins. Faster GFS model runs suggest rain is everywhere by Saturday morning and continues on and off into Sunday while some slower models like the European hold rain back for later Saturday and then lasting on and off into Sunday. Either way it does seem that we will be dealing with rain over the weekend and it could be on the order of 1 to 2 inches worth which is not exactly what we need right now given how wet is has been. We will be discussing all of this later today as well as tonight on the Joe & Joe Weather Show at 7:35pm Eastern time.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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