More Gloom & Doom Plus
Weekend Uncertainty Regarding Coastal Storm
Yesterday’s warm front stalled out across New Jersey and has sunk southward and now lies across Virginia and Western Pennsylvania. The resulting onshore flow today will likely keep us in clouds all day long. Maybe the sun make a brief appearance in spots but overall it should be a gray gloomy day with mainly cloudy skies. Temperatures today will be mostly in the upper 30s to mid 40s thanks to a developing northeast to east wind. Radars for now are quiet nearby but we will start to see rain develop across Virginia and Maryland later today into this evening and then start to move northward tonight.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
Areas inland tonight will see temperatures drop below freezing so when precipitation arrives during the early morning hours we could see some snow or freezing rain at the start. This will occur in Northeast Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, the Hudson Valley especially north of Interstate 84 and interior Connecticut. Everywhere else it will be rain arriving. Lows will be in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
Friday is looking to be a cloudy, rainy day with an ocean wind and most highs ranging from the upper 30s north and northeast of New York City and mid to upper 40s South Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania. Low pressure redevelops offshore and heads out and the rain ends late Friday afternoon and evening from west to east. We get a break Saturday but not much clearing however as the atmosphere primes for Sunday and a coastal storm that is forecast to develop east of Virginia. Saturday highs will be in the 40s.
All of the models show storm development Sunday east of Virginia with the GFS and Canadian models the most aggressive verses the weaker and more east models of the European and ICON. The reason for the difference lies in the Friday storm system as it moves south of Atlantic Canada and becomes a major ocean storm. If this storm system is stronger, it will force the new coastal system to climb northward before turning northeast and that will be the key to whether we wind up with a significant snowfall or something minor. The trend this winter for every storm system that has formed of the Mid Atlantic coast has been to move east rather than north and we continue to believe that this is the most likely solution but we can’t as yet rule out something more aggressive as far as snow is concerned for Sunday night into Monday particularly for the coastal counties of New Jersey to Long Island. Weather models today hopefully will provide some clarity on how this all evolves and we will be looking closely at how models handle all this. In the meantime we will forecast the chance for snow developing late Sunday and lasting into at least part of Monday.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.