Midday Thunderstorms Wednesday
Strong Disturbance Moving Through
Dry Thursday Through Saturday
We are going to be under the influence of a very strong vortex in Eastern Canada on Wednesday. Rotating around that vortex is a strong upper air disturbance that will be moving through so look for possible midday thunderstorms Wednesday.,
Midday Thunderstorms Wednesday Upper Air 8am
Fortunately the timing of this disturbance is for the middle of the day and not the late afternoon or evening. Otherwise I would be concerned about a round of severe weather. Instead we will be cooling off tonight and Wednesday we will be quite cool with highs only in the 60s. Since this all going to be driven by the strong dynamics aloft, some showers and thunderstorms are likely to pop up Wednesday morning into early afternoon as the disturbance moves through.
Midday Thunderstorms Wednesday Upper Air 2pm
Since the air aloft is very cold and very unstable, some thunderstorms are lilkely to produce gusty winds and some small hail. It is so cold aloft that in the late fall or early spring we would probably see some snow out of this! Once this disturbance passes the atmosphere will being to stablize and we will see improvement though it will be cool through the rest of the week.
GFS MODEL FORECAST SATURDAY
Saturday’s GFS model forecast would indicate that we should be dry through Saturday evening which will be great for Belmont Day and the Belmont Stakes. The northern part of the jet stream is unusually strong for early June and another strong system will be diving southeast and creating a storm offshore later Sunday and Sunday night. Today’s model runs were further north and east and though the outcome is a deep low off the New England coast, it was not as dire as the prior run. We will wait to see how the European model handles this.
RACING SATURDAY…FAST AND FIRM..SUNSHINE WITH SOME ARRIVING CLOUDS..NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER SUNSET FOR BELMONT DAY.
GFS MODEL FORECAST SUNDAY
It looks like some rain or showers are likely for Sunday either way regardless. We will look at this situation more extensively in a JOESTRADAMUS post later today.
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