Major Storm Developing Offshore Edging Closer
Model runs this morning all took a rather noticeable shift to the left with the storm off the Southeast coast of the United States. The models including the GFS still have an offshore track however the track is more north northeast than northeast and in a case like this, a 10 or 20 degree change in heading makes a huge difference along the coast. You can see the really impressive cloud structure developing all the east coast this afternoon on the Satellite loop and the radar presentation is also very impressive from Southern Virginia southward.
Major Storm Developing Offshore Edging Closer Satellite and Radar Loops
I still think that in the end this will be a coastal event and it will be a matter of how far west does the accumulating snow get and how far west does the several to 6 inch line. get. I think the risk for a 6 inch snowfall for Eastern Connecticut and Eastern Long Island has increased. I’m going to leave my original snowfall forecast alone for the time being but I will be upgrading it later today.
Major Storm Developing Offshore Edging Closer HRRR MODEL SNOW THROUGH 7AM
Major Storm Developing Offshore Edging Closer RAP MODEL SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
The maps above show the HRRR model forecast through 7am Monday morning with snow just beginning over Long Island. The RAP model which is another short range model has snowfall forecast through 10am Monday. It shows 3 inches over Central Long Island with more to go.
If these trends continue, my snowfall estimates will be raised later today.
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