Major Ocean Storm No Serious Threat
As we watch the progression of the next weather system across the Ohio Valley we are seeing the twist on the satellite picture indicative of the energy aloft. It is moving pretty much straight east this afternoon. Precipitation is spreaing into West Virginia southward into Western North Carolina. Clouds are beginning to arrive here as we move into the evening hours. The question is how much of that precipitation is going to survive the trip over the mountains. The air here is cold but it is exceptionally dry with dew points down in the low teens and single digits. Even if that snow survives how much of it is actually going to be able to reach the ground. It most of it gets left back west of the mountains that would not be unusual.
Local radars are quiet for the time being however look for these radars to begin showing some precipitation aloft this evening and through the first part of tonight. I would suspect we may see some flakes hitting the ground by around midnight or so for inland areas. My guess is that there will be areas of snow scattered around rather than one large organized area of snow.
Attention then shifts to the Carolinas where the surface storm will redevelop tonight and then explode once it passes east of the Carolina Coast. Again the issue here is that the storm center will not be lifting northward far enough to bring the organized heavy precipitaion to the area. The northern fringe may just touch the coasts of New Jersey and Long Island late tonight through Friday morning.
Major Ocean Storm No Serious Threat NAM MODEL PRECIPITATION AND SNOW TOTALS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY
The new mid afternoon NAM run through 4am shows just how light the precipitation is. Snow amounts are a coating to at most an inch. Liquid equivalents are at .10 of an inch or so from New Jersey northward. By day break the new NAM has snow extending to areas around New York City and Long Island. At this point the surface low is right along the North Carolina coast. Now from here the storm will start moving more to the east rather than lift northward. This is probably as far north as the steadiest snow will get. Certainly inland areas will see lighter snows that produce little except for a coating. Once we pass sunrise the sun angle will mean roads should be fine. Before sunrise however, a coating of snow with temperatures in the 20s will make things a little slick in spots so exercise caution.
Major Ocean Storm No Serious Threat NAM MODEL 7AM SURFACE MAP
By 1pm the snow on the nam is done. Except for Southern New Jersey south of rt 195 where there could be an inch or 2 of accumulation, amounts elsewhere will be minimal.
Major Ocean Storm No Serious Threat NAM MODEL TOTAL SNOWFALL
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