Low Pressure Grazes Coast With Rain Fast Moving Weak Systems Through Christmas No Pattern Change Longer Term

Low Pressure Grazes Coast With Rain

Fast Moving Weak Systems Through Christmas No Pattern Change Longer Term

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Low Pressure Grazes Coast With Rain

Fast Moving Weak Systems Through Christmas No Pattern Change Longer Term

Low pressure is off the Florida coast and heading north northeastward this afternoon. Highs clouds have been increasing slowly but there has been enough sun to take temperatures into the 40s. The clouds continue to thicken up but we should point out that this low will pass offshore and only coastal areas could get grazed with a little bit of rain later tonight into Wednesday morning as the low goes by. Everyone else escapes with just the cloud cover overnight into Wednesday morning with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

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Rain is just beginning to come into view in Southeast Virginia as it move out of North Carolina. With the low offshore it means that the heaviest rains will be well offshore and of no issue here. Rainfall amounts will be very light and mainly under a tenth of an inch. This isn’t a well organized storm system, and energy to the north across the Great Lakes will fail to energize it in time for it to have any meaningful impact in the Northeast.

Fast moving systems will be the rule going forward through Christmas and into next week. Before that, it will be drying out with decreasing clouds and increase sun from west to east Wednesday as the low pulls away. It will be breezy and we will have leftover highs in the 40s.

Colder air will follow Wednesday night on gusty northwest winds and clear skies. Most lows will be in the 20s. Thursday we see sunshine to start but clouds will arrive as the day wears on. Most highs will be in the 30s to around 40. Then we look to the first of several rather fast moving weak systems that will head our way. The first will come Thursday night into Friday morning and some areas will see a period of snow or flurries. It might even be enough to whiten the ground in spots but that would be the extent of it.

Since there isn’t much cold air between these systems they are going to be mostly rain events that follow. Christmas Eve we will have some sunshine with highs in the low to mid 40s. Friday night into Saturday as the GFS shows along with some others, we will see some rain as the next fast mover goes by. Christmas Day. Highs will likely reach into the 50s in many locations.

Another system comes in Saturday afternoon and evening with rain. This east west oriented system will intensify offshore and bring down colder air into Upstate NY and interior Southern New England changing the rain to snow there while it will be rain everywhere else Sunday morning and then it all comes to an end. At least Upstate NY into Central and interior Southern New England could see a white Boxing Day morning.

As far as next week is concerned it is more of the same. There is no real cold air in the US except for the Western US where heavy snows will be raging especially in the Northwest US. The broad scale upper pattern remains just as it has been with a deep trough in the Western US and a ridge in the Eastern US. The models were clearly wrong in indicating pattern change for next week especially the European.

This loop of the European upper air says it all. The deep trough in the west barely moves for 5 days next week which means lots of snow there. It also should be noted that even through we have strong blocks they are in the wrong places. No change in the upper pattern will take place until the Western US trough breaks down and there is no sign of that happening through New Year.

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