Low Humidity Sunshine Thursday But Humidity Rises Over the Weekend
We do have some cloud issues today along the immediate coast of New Jersey as well as Long Island and Southern New England. Yesterday’s weak cold front that moved through and stalled offshore is hanging around today with clouds from this frontal boundary lying along the coast. Inland west and north it is partly to mostly sunny. Humidity levels are low today which is a plus either way. Low pressure developing on the front will eventually pull these clouds out to the east and we should see some sky improvement this afternoon along the coast. Most highs today will be in the low to middle 80s. No showers are forecast. I think the chance for a pop up shower or downpour is rather low and not worth worrying about.
Skies will clear out tonight with most lows in the 60s..perhaps closer to 70 in the warmer urban locations. Friday looks like a good day with sunshine along with some late day high clouds. Highs will be in the 80s and the humidity will still be reasonable. However we do have a warm front coming Friday night that could trigger a shower or thunderstorm late at night or early Saturday morning. Then very warm to hot and humid conditions follow with some sunshine. Highs will be in the upper 80s to some lower 90s.
Late in the day Saturday and Saturday evening we have a cold front that will be approaching and attempting to move through. This could produce some widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Some of the Long Range models are picking up on this including the NAM model which has a rather active looking line approaching in an east west fashion Saturday evening.
My experience has been that these fronts that produce east west lines of storms can be rather fierce under certain circumstances and we may have such a circumstance this weekend with a strong upper trough dropping southward. Lots of daytime heating and high dew points Saturday set the stage for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has taken notice.
This is a rather aggressive forecast 2 days out and I would expect that slight risk area gets expanded when we get to Saturday. We might even have a small area of enhanced risk added to this. Sunday will still be a rather humid day with some sunshine because the front does get hung up again. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. I will allow for the possibility of a pop up shower or thunderstorm for Sunday though they should be widely scattered in nature.
Next week we will see an upper low in Northern New England dropping the jet stream in the East a bit further south than it normally would be. This is going to allow higher pressures from Eastern Canada to build southward putting us in a northeast flow of air beginning probably on Tuesday and lasting for much of the week. It should also push any frontal boundary far enough south to spare us issues with an onshore flow. That will occur probably in Virginia and North Carolina. We will be in a better spot with no worse than a mix of sun and clouds with reasonable temperatures for much of next week. In fact once this trough pulls out it will probably bring very warm to borderline hot temperatures next weekend which is the 4th of July holiday weekend. It also appears that rain will be sorely lacking all week long and probably through next weekend.
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