Long Range Colder Active New Pattern Emerges

Long Range Colder Active New Pattern Emerges

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Long Range Colder Active New Pattern Emerges

It seems that last weekends major storm may have set a series of upper air pattern changes in motion which continues to evolve. It appears that a few important things are happening across the Northern Hemisphere that will break the back of the persistent warmth of the last 8 weeks. Among other things that has been happening is the increasing snow cover growth over all of Canada. The snow cover growth has been far greater than last year at this time.

LONG RANGE COLDER SNOW COVER NOV 2 2016

LONG RANGE COLDER SNOW COVER NOV 2 2017

Unlike last year at this time snow cover extends into the Northwestern Great Lakes & Northern Rockies. Canada last year was very warm throughout the fall and winter relative to average. This year it has been the reverse and that has made a huge difference here. I think we are beginning to see a gradually southward shift in the main jet stream which will allow colder air masses to drop southward with more frequency. The last several GFS model runs have strongly hinted at this and today’s run is actually the most bullish of the bunch when it comes to colder air. At the very least we should see temperatures trend close to average for this time of year once we get through Monday which will be near 70 as a cold front approaches.

LONG RANGE COLDER SATURDAY MORNING FORECAST LOWS

LONG RANGE COLDER

LONG RANGE COLDER SUNDAY MORNING FORECAST LOWS

long range colder

The southward shift in the jet stream allows for some interesting possibilities in the long range particularly next weekend. The models seem to be aggressive with the amount of low level cold air dropping south out of Canada. Next weekend looks to be the coldest of the autumn season so far assuming the models are correct with a large high building down from Canada with cold air draining southward down the Hudson Valley. Several waves will pass to our south this week as colder air overwhelms. However there is room for something more important next weekend as the energy may try and pile on on the Eastern United States. This will probably mean the first snows for areas in the interior Northeast and New England, especially in elevation driven locations. We will have more on the specifics with all this as weather models attempt to figure all this out.

 

 

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