LONG RANGE PATTERN COLDER EASTERN US WITH SHOTS OF COLD AIR
SNOW COVER ADVANCING ACROSS CANADA AT A RECORD PACE
SIBERIAN SNOW COVER GROWN LAGGING BEHIND
The autumn season is one where nature and the atmosphere prepare for the onslaught of winter. Of course snow lovers and weather watches grasp for any and every clue that is out there. Snow lovers want reassurance that snow will begin to fall November 1st and continue until April 30th. Anything less and winter in their eyes is over before it began! JOESTRADMUS always takes a wait and see approach to these things as clues are just that and they do not necessarily lead to guaranteed outcomes. There is no one single magic bullet that you can point to and say that if this happens then the out come will x or y. Too often what appears to be a far gone conclusion winds up being something far different. We can say that right now a switch has indeed been flipped and the weather pattern over the next two weeks will favor shots of cold air coming down out of Canada on a regular basis.
The upper air pattern and jet stream is complex yet simple at the same time. It is complex because we have 3 upper lows A, B, & C in Eastern Canada basically rotating around each other. As one pulls out the next one drops in. Such is the case with the trough and cool shot this weekend as that pulls out on Monday only to be replaces by another trough (B) for midweek. This brings another shot of chilly air and will hit bottom Thursday morning with temperatures in the 20s and 30s and the likelihood of frosts and freezes for the Northeast.
Then as trough B pulls out trough C is waiting in the wings for the weekend. This looks to be the coldest of the 3 as digs southward. The air will be cold enough for frosts freezes and even some snow showers in parts of upstate NY & New England with a little bit of lake effect thrown in.
This pattern is having an impact on snow cover growth across North America which for the first half of October has been proceeding at a record pace according to Dr Judah Cohen who talked about this today on Twitter.
Last year North America snow cover growth was strong in the Autumn even in the face of a very warm weather pattern which did not flip to extreme cold until the latter part of November. Of course this led to the December ice box pattern we experienced. it seems that the pattern flip this year has occurred a month earlier. The snow cover growth in North American this year is at the top of the chart so far.
However there are differences this fall than last not only in the upper air pattern but also with the weak el nino that appears to be developing (last year we were neutral). Also the Pacific upper air structure is different from last year as well. Nonetheless snow cover growth in North America should continue this week if the GFS has anything to say about this.
Siberia meanwhile has seen the lowest snow cover growth this decade though the GFS model does give it a boost in the next 2 weeks based on its forecast though the growth in snow cover is not extensive on the southern and western flanks, at least not yet.
This is sort of like watching pieces of a puzzle on Harry Potter coming together except that the pieces keep changing in size and shape as you try to put it all together. Clues are suggesting an interesting couple of months ahead but whether all the pieces come together for a cold snowy start to winter remain a question at this point in the calendar.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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