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TELE-CONNECTIONS POINT TO A POTENTIAL STORMY PATTERN AHEAD
Weather models overnight continue the trend of the last week as we are now seeing long range blocking developing in the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic Oscillation is going to be negative to at times strongly negative through the next 2 weeks. We saw this last March for almost 4 weeks which resulted in 4 powerful noreasters. Nothing is exactly the same but the presence of blocking would favor storm systems tracking to our south and east. It also will mean colder than average temperatures in the Eastern US. The signal to watch with this is the Pacific North America index which is forecast to be strongly almost off the wall positive this weekend and peaking early next week. The combination of these two indices point to storminess in the East. Saturday night into Sunday morning we could see some rain as the cold air pulls out and a weak system moves through. There shouldn’t be much with this and the cold air will be long gone by the time that precipitation gets here.
The upper air for next Sunday illustrates the blocking and how it impacts the jet stream. Higher pressures build in the northern latitudes and lower pressures are to the south. Short wave troughs are forced to move all along against their natural tendency to want to move northeast into Canada and instead are forced to more more to the east.
Watch the map sequence above where the primary low moves out of Missour and heads toward the Eastern Great Lakes. The block forces the energy to the coast and a low develops in Virginia and completely takes over. The GFS has a very amplified look and develops a major rain and wind event for next Monday. The other models have similar ideas but they have a less developed low and hold on to the primary low much longer. This may or may not be correct but it does mean some rain for Monday and it could be substantial if the more amped GFS is correct. One thing we know for sure is that in spite of all the arctic air coming Thursday and Friday it will be long gone before this system arrives.
The blocking pattern has staying power and it is still there as we go out further in time. This will probably create opportunities for more storminess into the first week of December. Cold air is not an issue on Monday but it could become an issue later next week as the cold flow from Canada increases as a surface high builds in Southeastern Canada and attempts to hold in. Since we have already seen an early snowstorm, it will probably be wise to keep an open mind as this pattern develops.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.