Late Shower Thunderstorm Chance Dry Into the Memorial Day Weekend No Major Issues
We continue to move along in a week which has featured smokey sunshine thanks to the smoke from the wildfires in Central Canada and a northwest flow in the upper atmosphere which as been the dominating pattern. This is about to change as a cold front approaches. We can see the clouds from that cold front moving southeastward out of Eastern Canada. Ahead of it today we will have smokey sunshine with inland highs between 75 and 80 degrees while it will be a little cooler along the coast with a sea breeze. Late this afternoon and evening there could be a brief shower or thunderstorm. Activity will be more widespread in New England but it still won’t be anything that lasts long.
Once the front passes we will see winds shift to the north both at the surface and and aloft. The shift aloft is important because it will cut off the flow from Central Canada. That will effectively get rid of the smoke for at least a few days. Skies tonight will clear out with lows by morning in the 50s to around 60.
A very strong high pressure area will be building across the Great Lakes and Northeast Thursday into the weekend. This high is very important for the outcome of the Memorial Day weekend. It will be suppressing rain and lower pressures that will develop off the Southeast US coast later Thursday and it will keep that low pinned down in the Southeast US.
In the meantime it leaves us with a Thursday filled with sunshine and smoke free skies. Highs will be in the mid 60s along the coast and inland highs will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. All of this will come with a northeast breeze. Friday will produce much of the same with sunshine, smoke free skies, and highs again in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
I think we can raise our optimism for the Memorial Day holiday weekend even higher. Certainly we see no issues for Saturday other than perhaps some high clouds might come up from the south and veil the sunshine a bit but the further north you go, the more sun you will see. No rain is forecast for Saturday with highs reaching into the 70s except again a little cooler at the shore.
We are going to take the position that we will be dry for Sunday and Monday Memorial Day from what we see at the moment. Models all want to keep any rain suppressed and again the biggest issue may just be clouds that come into the mix both Sunday and Monday especially in places like Southern New Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania southward.
Let’s lean toward the idea that both Sunday and Monday we will see no worse than a mix of sun and clouds and we are leaving any rain out of the forecast for now. Highs Sunday will reach the middle 70s in most places, a little warmer in some inland spots, a little cooler along the shore. Monday highs could inch a little higher with 70s at the coast and upper 70s and lower 80s inland.
One thing that should be noted for shore goers starting later Thursday and lasting into the weekend. The persistent onshore flow is likely to create some rough surf and rip tide issues. This isn’t going to be a beach weekend if your definition of a beach weekend is to dive into the cold ocean.
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