Labor Day Weekend Weather Hangs On Tropical Storm Track
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WEATHER
DEPENDS ON TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM
ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS REGARDLESS
One thing for sure. Regardless of what the final track of Tropical Depression 9 (assuming it becomes a tropical storm today), beach goers from Southern New England to Southern Delmarva are going to have to deal with very rough surf conditions and dangerous rip currents right through Labor Day. The big question ultimately is track as the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm, cross northeast Florida, straddle the southeast coast of the United States and then move northeast or north northeast from there. There were several model complications overnight that suggest a hook to the left is possible. Even if this were to happen, this would mean wind and rain coming into the forecast for Sunday and Monday but nothing that can’t be managed. However we are putting things way ahead of the game here as most models favor out to sea solutions.
First off lets take a step back and look at today’s weather which is very warm and humid with some sunshine and clouds. Highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 in some places. I think the best chance for showers or a thunderstorm will be overnight when a cold front moves through. You can see the front on the satellite loop below along with Hurricane Gaston, Tropical Depression 8 off North Carolina, Tropical Depression 9 in the Gulf of Mexico, and a wave in between 8 and 9!
Radars are showing showers and thunderstorms to the north in upstate NY and Northwest Pennsylvania. Models weaken these showers somewhat as they move southeast but not completely. Timing for showers here appears to be overnight into Thursday morning before the front moves offshore. Im counting on weather conditions improving during Thursday as a cooler air mass builds in from the north.. Highs Thursday will still be in the low to mid 80s but then it turns much cooler Thursday night.
Friday and Saturday look great with sunshine and a fresh north or northeast wind and highs in the 70s. Nights will be in the 50s to near 60.
I put up the GFS overnight model runs here. 2 runs and the models are over 300 miles apart with where they put the tropical system! Its just wonderful to have to work with tools like this!
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WEATHER GFS MODEL RUN FROM 8PM TUESDAY..
GFS MODEL FORECAST 8PM SUNDAY 09042016
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WEATHER GFS MODEL RUN FROM 2AM TODAY.
GFS MODEL FORECAST 8PM SUNDAY 09042016
If we assume an offshore track for Tropical Depression 9 as a tropical storm or even if it were to become a minimal hurricane, Sunday and Monday would be 2 nice days with clouds and some sun on Sunday and maybe a bit of a breeze. The same might hold for Monday with highs in the 70s to near 80. However this forecast is going to hinge on track.
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