SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 159.4W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Kilo was a tropical storm yesterday before being downgraded after the recon found only 26 kt winds. There is an impressive area of thunderstorms that has developed today. Conditions are favorable for strengthening with high sea surface temps and very low shear.
The issue with track is a puzzle because steering currents are forecast to be weak over the next few days. This poses a threat to Hawaii.
The eventual forecast turn to the northeast if this is correct means the the western part of the islands could be under a threat later this week. But again there is lots of uncertainty here given the upper air conditions. Hurricanes and tropical systems in general out here do all sorts of weird things but it should be noted that many of Hawaii’s biggest storms have come from the south or southwest and not necessarily the ones that develop to the east because the waters south of Hawaii are so much warmer and sheering is much less of an issue, especially in this case. We will of course watch this with meteorological interest.