Jostradamus Sees Heat for the Week But Cooler Trends for Long Range – Tropics Remain Quiet… Signals Last Week Were Wrong

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bfe41247971035b11314aed708c4da02The last week of July and the first part of August are the time of year where average highs and lows peak. Once we past the first week of August the numbers start to move south and thus begins the march to Autumn. This year it seems to be timing out where the current weather and the averages are matching up with this week looking to be the warmest of the year with temperatures in the 90s beginning Tuesday and lasting through at least Thursday.

e667bc534e80db8a7c995585bb3c0b0aThe forecast for the first part of the week is relatively easy. The next important change is going to come late Thursday with a cold front. The European shows the jet stream close by to the north and it gradually sinks southward as the heat ridge shifts to the west. The trough is not particularly that strong so that it looks as if we will still be close to the edge of hot air for a few additional days. The push however should be enough to lower the humidity levels at least by a little bit beginning on Friday.

The model as we head into the weekend is building the ridge in the west as well as building a ridge off the southeast

dea1e0e97f489e3f2c0648eafdba67d9coast with the weakness in between the two It is in that weakness that we see the trough in the east and what happens is that the jet stream very gradually lowers further and further south. The trough is not deep enough to put us in very cool air but it is deep enough where the humidity should be forced southward.

Taking the European right through next weekend there are no important changes. It pretty much holds in the same way with the ridge in the west..the ridge off the east coast and the gentle trough in the middle which would keep it very warm but not too humid 16a36d2fc5295bb54b961d4e0ba6a26eright through the weekend. It might be great beach weather from Tuesday on and certainly it would be a great place to cool off during the three hottest days. Now the longer term shows the trough in the east gradually strengthening which would bring cooler than normal temps beyond next weekend. With regards to the tropics nothing here suggests development in the Atlantic basin and the upper air pattern is unfavorable for a track up and along the east coast even if something were to form. Relax and enjoy mode continues until further notice.

db711050af2541cdcd7c4057484da494In order to monitor the tropics be sure to check the latest developments on the tropical weather page.

With regards to the short range…please now go to my Joe’s forecast page for the latest on the day to day specifics.