irma

Jose & Tropical Depression Two More Hurricanes Likely to Develop

Jose & Tropical Depression Two More Hurricanes Likely to Develop

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Jose & Tropical Depression

Two More Hurricanes Likely to Develop

The tropics are on fire at the moment. We have a second tropical storm shown on the satellite loop above which is Tropical Storm Jose. It is out in the Tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles southeast of Hurricane Irma. Satellite loops show that Jose is strengthening and top winds are 50 mph. All model guidance strengthen this to a hurricane in the next few days. It’s future is highly uncertain since it will at some point come under the influence of Hurricane Irma’s expanding outflow. This poses no threat to any land at the moment but we will monitor it as it moves westward.

…JOSE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.3N 41.7W
ABOUT 1330 MI…2140 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the future progress
of Jose.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 41.7 West. Jose is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly faster
west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose is
expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

You can see all three systems together on the satellite loop below with Irma in the middle. Jose is to the southeast and tropical depression 13 is in the southwest Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical depression 13 formed Tuesday afternoon in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico and while it has not organized into a tropical storm, conditions are favorable for this system to develop. The upper air pattern however will prevent this from moving northward so it is not a threat to Texas or the Gulf Coast. Given the overall pattern it is likely to be pinned down in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. Conditions there are favorable for development and this depression should become a tropical storm in the next day or 2. Some of the model guidance strengthen this to a hurricane down the road.

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…DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO, COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Mexican state of Veracruz should monitor the
progress of the depression.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 96.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and
the system should drift eastward and southward during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression
is expected to remain offshore of Mexico through late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a hurricane on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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