jose

Jose GFS Model Moves Westward Toward Coast

Jose GFS Model Moves Westward Toward Coast

 

Jose GFS Model Moves Westward Toward Coast

During Thursday afternoon & evening several models began subtle westward shifts in the track of Hurricane Jose that caused me to get a bit concerned. Now that I have seen the new GFS model, that cause of concern was justified as the model has made a significant jog to the left (west) bringing Jose very close to the coast east of New Jersey and South of Long Island on Tuesday with weather conditions deteriorating Monday night. But before we get all bent out of shape we need to take a step back and realize that we are looking at the day 4 and 5 time frame here and significant shifts in both directions are still quite possible. I’m not ready to buy this idea though I certainly can see how this happens.

GFS UPPER AIR SUNDAY EVENING

jose

It doesn’t show up that well because it is so weak but the remnant trough of Irma is still there in the east just hanging when Jose gets closer enough that it begins to interact with it. We can see that trough better as we look even higher up in the atmosphere.

GFS HIGH LEVEL JET STREAM MONDAY & TUESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

jose

The trough is much more evident as we look higher up in the atmosphere. It is the area shaded in white. It creates a southerly flow along the east coast that lifts Jose northward all the way up rather than kicking it out to the east which is what it has been doing up until this model run.

There are numerous questions that pop into my mind. First off is we are not staring at a category 4 hurricane here. This system is under hurricane strength at the moment. What happens once it gets north of 35 degrees north where water temperatures are below the threshold to support anything more than a category 1 hurricane? Does it weaken quickly? Does it basically do a slow fall apart? We also have a new moon coming on Wednesday so tides will be on the rise. Coastal flooding certainly could be a big issue depending on timing of tides. And again is this just one run that is doing this only to go back out to a further east solution later today or over the weekend? Many many questions here but I think a red flag has been raised and we certainly need to be paying attention to this in a much bigger way.

UKMET HAS A VERY CLOSE NEAR MISS

 

jose

Here is an argument against the GFS as the UKMET which until now has been the furthest west has suddenly gone to the east and argues for a near miss. I will repeat again we need to see what the other models do tonight and see if this trend carries during the day on Friday and into the weekend. I’m not sold yet.

SATELLITE LOOP

storm free

…JOSE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN…
…LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 375 MI…605 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 510 MI…815 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB…29.21 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 68.0 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the north is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Jose is expected to regain hurricane status on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC

 

storm free

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…10.7N 25.4W
ABOUT 380 MI…610 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.83 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 25.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35
km/h). A slower westward motion is forecast to begin on Friday and
continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

GET JOE A CIGAR IF YOU LIKE 

 

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