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Jose European Is The New Canadian

Jose European Model Is The New Canadian

 

Jose European Model Is The New Canadian

Regardless of which track Jose takes, either west and closer to the coast, or further east and offshore, either choice will have impact on Central & Eastern Long Islands, South Shore & Long Island Sound Tides, and an impact on Southern and Southeastern New England. Whether it is a small impact or something more remains to be seen.  For New Jersey the impacts will be less because New Jersey will be on the west side with a northerly wind. Only a track well west would result in serious impacts.

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On the satellite loop Jose is getting better organized this afternoon and the latest Air Force recon report shows a pressure of 985 millibars and a band of winds to hurricane force southeast of the center. It seems that Jose should be a hurricane by this evening if it isn’t all ready.

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Now as far as Jose is concerned it would seem that which ever track you pick, the Eastern half of Long Island and Southeastern New England at the very least is in for some wind and rain.

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The GFS model for 2am Wednesday has the core of the hurricane offshore but it has sustained gale force winds of 34 kts (40 mph) or higher over Eastern Long Island. Next Wednesday is a new moon so tide Tuesday with an east wind will create coastal flooding concerns.

EUROPEAN MODEL TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 19 THROUGH MONDAY SEPTEMBER 25

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Not all models have Jose this close. The European model perhaps creates the more serious situation for the Long Island south shore with respect to tidal flooding and beach erosion. Its track is further south followed by a broad clockwise loop. This will create tidal flooding issues possibly for all of next week if this track or something close to it materializes. This is something that the Canadian model might do. Maybe the European is the new Canadian. The European’s view seems a bit preposterous at this point with this broad loop and another hurricane getting involved later next week. Needless to say we have a long way to go with figuring this one out.

 

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