Joestramdus Ugly Long Range Outlook

Joestramdus Ugly Long Range Outlook

April in my view is a cruel month. It is also in my view the worst month weather wise because winter is still trying to hold on and spring is flexing its muscle. The result can be very problematic especially when you try and forecast in a pattern like this. What we are seeing is something that should be around in the middle of January. At least when it happens then, it is when it is supposed to happen. When it happens in April it means delaying warmer weather at least, and in the extreme, very cold and snow like we saw in some areas today.

Joestramdus Ugly Long Range Outlook Long Range Teleconnections

All the long range indicators are pointing to a continuation of below normal temperatures for the next week or so. We are also seeing the North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to go off the wall negative next weekend and into next week. This means no 80s and no 70s anytime soon unless you get an odd set up. You saw that today in South Jersey for example where temperatures reached the low 70s while Northwest New Jersey was in the low 30s for a nice 40 degree spread.

Joestramdus Ugly Long Range Outlook

GFS NEXT MONDAY APRIL 11, 2016

Joestramdus Ugly Long Range Outlook

EUROPEAN MODEL NEXT MONDAY

Over the next week blocking is forecast to develop on all the models. Above we have the GFS and European Model for next Monday. All weather models show a strong blocking high developing over Greeneland with the Euro model the strongest of the bunch. This at least keeps temperatures below normal throughout much of the east into next week. Now whether it comes with some sort of storm threat is another issue. Right now the models suggest that there won’t be any big issues. The Euro model and GFS model have a cold front coming through Thursday and then both have some sort of  developing off the Middle Atlantic Coast which moves out to the east and is of no consequence here. But let’s see how the models play out going forward. In the meantime it remains colder than normal on the order 15 or more degrees below normal for next weekend. Temperatures may attempt to moderate after that.

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