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Joestradamus: Weather Quiet Ahead

Joestradamus: Weather Quiet Ahead

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Joestradamus: Weather Quiet Ahead

After seeing two widespread rain events in a week for the first time in months and probably since the early spring, the pattern settles down a bit going into next week. We have conflicting signals in the long range.

Joestradamus: Weather Quiet Ahead Teleconnections

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The indicies above point to some conflict. The Pacific North America index is forecast to go positive which means a strong ridge in the west. The North Atlantic Oscillation is forecast to go sharply negative over the next 2 weeks. The East Pacific Oscillation however is forecast to go strongly positive which does not favor cold air coming into the Eastern US. The strong North Atlantic Oscillation might allow some colder air to come down from the northeast however but it does not appear it would lock in the way it did over the last 5 days. This takes us out through the first 10 days of November.

Joestradamus: Weather Quiet Ahead

Temperature Anomalies Late Next Week

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You can see the effect of the negative NAO on the loop above of above and below normal temperatures. Also you can see how the positive EPO basically floods Canada and the rest of the United States with warmer than normal air.

Joestradamus: Weather Quiet Ahead

Upper Air Jet Stream

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Pay close attention to two things going on. First off is the mess in the Pacific which basically cuts off all polar air flow while in the east on this run the NAO causes a trough to drop just to the east of us and brings down a shot of colder air. Who knows if this is real or not and if it is it is just temporary. None of this is a surprise nor does it change my view of a pattern change developing around the middle of November. It may take a bit to play out since they don’t change on the dime.  Some of the longer range European models are in line with this idea going into the super long range. As always with these things it is a process and the pattern change you want may not necessarily be the pattern change you get.

In the meantime this week look for cold fronts ot come through every few days. One is due Sunday and another one around midweek with not much weather with it. No big storms are on the horizon for the next 7 days.

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