JOESTRADAMUS: Trying to Make Sense Out Of The Long Range

JOESTRADAMUS has found the last week or so examining the long range a little confusing to say the least. Dealing with the model swings from run to run is one thing but add the concept of a block of one sort or another and you have an even more difficult challenge ahead then usual. Firstly we have this deep trough in the east bringing the colder air this weekend. The core of the cold air pulls out Monday which is what is supposed to happen this time of year and the warm up that follows is fast and typical of when deep troughs pull out.gfs120


The first change is later this week as a cold front approaches on Thursday. Models are taking a trough in the flow and dropping it along 60 or 65 west depending on which model you look at. There are some differences in how the models handle this with the European showing the biggest difference in the overall look.



This will create a somewhat colder finish to the week and the start of next weekend. It also somewhat alters what happens following this. Take the Canadian which creates a bit of a log jam in the Atlantic while the ridge builds in the west.



To complicate matters further is the fact that one model or another is doing the usual array of various tropical storms whether real or imagined which will probably impact the flow one way or another. The long range signals point to a colder overall pattern. It seems like the entire upper air flow is transitioning as we head toward November though to what exactly im not sure. We can say that with regards to the next five days it is just temperatures swings to worry about with no big storms on the horizon through at least Thursday.  Im going to be curious about the end of next week and whether the upper low that drops into Nova Scotia winds up being there or a little further west , or does it wind up less deep and further east.


The GFS is in an entirely different world regarding all of this as it just has a massive east coast ridge, an approaching tropical storm heading for the southeast coast and a deep trough in the west! It gets there by  wrapping up deep lows in the North Atlantic that force big ridging in the Western Atlantic. Im really suspicious of any tropical storm development and also equal suspicious of what all the models do as they seem to react differently to Atlantic and Pacific ocean developments beyond the middle of next week. Time to punt to the next series of runs and see what that takes us. One of the frustrating things right now is that outside of the cold shot this weekend which we have been talking about almost to the point of nausea, there really hasn’t been much else to key on. The non forecast winter forecast from the National Weather Service which really offered no insight beyond the obvious came and went. The tropics have been dead as a doornail since Joaquin. I suppose I should enjoy the break.

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