Joestradamus if you recall pointed out back 11 days ago that it might not rain for 16 days. Joestradamus being a cautious sort of person is never comfortable with these sorts of predictions especially in a climate where it usually rains every three or 4 days on average. Well lo and behold today is the 11th day in a row of no rain and it is certainly likely that the streak goes to at least 14 with the next chance of any rain being late Sunday at the earliest. With regards to the rain the most aggressive models are the Nam and the GFS which do seem to want to bring rain up the coast for Saturday night in southern areas (Southern New Jersey, Southeast and South Central Pennsylvania) and then spread the area slowly northward.
The nam doesn’t show much wave development to the south off the Carolinas and is much like the European in this respect though with much more precip. The GFS on the other hand has a more developed wave off North Carolina by Sunday afternoon (match it up with the Nam above and you can see the difference) and takes that wave and lifts it northward.
The GFS scenario does not produce much rain even if it is right as the wave does move northeast from here with rain for parts of New Jersey Sunday night into Monday morning It would be on the order of half inch or less with next to nothing just inland of the coast.
With regards to the European, the rain never gets here at all and it has no rain all next week! All models by the way do seem to want to develop some sort of tropical system in the Central Gulf of Mexico with the GFS taking it northward and inland early next week while the European wants to go westward.
If we don’t get rain out of this late this weekend (and I’m not convinced yet that we will) the streak of rainless days could carry through all of next week bringing it to around 19-20 days for areas say north of Route 195 in New Jersey. South of 195 it would seem to me you stand a better shot of seeing some rain here at some point Sunday or Sunday night. We will try to resolve this issue later today.
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