JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

 

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JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

Storm Risk Friday  Dry Saturday Through Monday

No Hot Weather In Sight

There are a few observations JOESTRADAMUS would like to make. With regards to the long range the pattern is not favorable for any prolonged hot weather. 90 degree days over our region have been few and far between. On most days when it has gotten very warm it has also been rather dry so humidity has not really been a big issue. Looking ahead the pattern would favor more of the same. We have a very active northern jet stream pattern across the United States and that does not change into next week. This means weather fronts come through every 3 days or so. Each front might have some shower and thunderstorm activity with it. Behind each front is dry warm weather. The timing of the next front is Friday which means that once it clears the coast, the weather for Saturday through Monday looks very good.

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

GFS MODEL SATURDAY MORNING JULY 2

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

Saturday morning shows a strong westerly flow across the Northeast and Middle Atlantic States. A front will be coming through Friday night with some thunderstorms ahead of it. This upper air flow would favor the front to just keep on going so other than maybe a few leftover clouds early in the day, Saturday  and Sunday both look good with sunshine and highs in the 80s.

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

GFS Monday July 4th

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

Monday’s jet stream still shows us on the edge of the northwest flow but you can see the next weather system back in the Middle Mississippi Valley. The system will be heading east but I think that the biggest issue on Monday will be whether clouds come in later in the day. However no rain is forecast on Monday as it will just be too dry and the vortex to the northeast will hold everything at bay long enough. Monday will see sunshine with perhaps some arriving late afternoon clouds and highs in the 80s. No issues at night for fireworks on the 4th of July.

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

GFS UPPER AIR TUESDAY JULY 5

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

The next weather system and upper trough will approach on Tuesday where will see the chance for some rain and thunderstorms as low pressure either moves overhead or just to our south. There is a chance we could get some decent rain from this but I will wait until the end of the week to zero in on that idea. 

JOESTRADAMUS Holiday Weekend Weather

GFS THURSDAY JULY 7TH

gfs192

Looking ahead to later next week the northern jet stream does retreat a little to the north which might put us on the edge of some heat and humidity for a couple of days late next week. However as we go further along around day 9-10 and further it is clear that the northern jet stream will reassert itself.

gfs240

By day 10 in the long range the trough in the east is back and the ridge is in the west. Now longer term I have suggested that as we get deeper into hurricane season this is going to become important to storm tracks along the east coast. If the tendency for troughing in the east continues it would increase the risk of a storm threat along the east coast. I am saying this in the broadest sense. The key question is whether this is a pattern that continues all summer and into the fall and that is something we just don’t know at this point. In the meantime, enjoy what should be a very good summer 4th of July holiday weekend.

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