Per today’s European Model and others, we have been seeing indications over the last few weeks that we are about to come out of this relatively benign pattern and enter into a colder stormier period with volatility. The cold shot over the weekend I believe was a shot across the bow and that there are a number of factors coming into play that need to be monitored as we go forward. First is the negative Atlantic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Both will be in negative mode for the most part over the next few weeks. We also see support for the build up of polar air that will be able to come into the United States and Northeast behind developing storms which have been sorely lacking during the past month. Today we focus primarily on the European model view.
First off 2 cold fronts will be coming through. The first one on Thursday has little with it and the second one on Sunday has little with it as well. Behind each front it will turn chilly but not as cold as what we saw this weekend. This means highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s for the most part. However early next week we begin to see the upper air pattern become more dynamic.
Per the European model at day 6 we have a strengthening northwest flow in the east. We also have strong ridging in the Atlantic that will hold the vortex and trough in place. In the west a spilt flow develops with ridging into the Gulf of Alask as a deep trough extends from the Southeast of the Aleutians southward.
The European then ejects a strong short wave into Montana while the vortex in northeastern Canada rotates around. Ridges are in place on either side and you can envision the squeeze play that is about to happen. The model creates a phase of all this and the result as a very deep trough that develops in the Great Lakes that then moves eastward.
The end result of this results in a fairly strong Great Lakes system with a strong cold front extending southward. The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic are open for business here so there should be some very good decent rains ahead of it. The timing of this would be the middle of next week. This will probably mean the first snows for the upper Midwest and the coldest air of the season coming into the Great Lakes and eventually the northeast with the lake effect machine eventually getting turned on.
Now bear in mind that I’m not exactly convinced that this is going to come out this way. Models will phase one run and not phase the next. The European has been dynamic for several runs now and the Canadian has pretty much shown the same idea however it has more of a sheared look to it and has more of coastal system & rain event as a result. My view on this is that either way it is an indication that models are beginning to catch on to the idea that we are coming to an end to the benign drought like pattern we have been in and moving toward something much more active and much more dynamic in the coming weeks. I know snow lovers think it should snow every day of the year except maybe the 4th of July. The atmosphere has some work to do in order to make a complete switch from the uneventful to the dynamic. More importantly it is a reflection of the el nino plus the Atlantic Oscillation beginning to flex their muscles and fight the battle over which one dominates the pattern overall in November. It should be a very interesting fight indeed.