JOESTRADAMUS Cyber Monday Weather Forecast Models Shopping For a Pattern Change
Cyber Monday is for shopping and JOESTRADAMUS is shopping for weather forecast models that at the very least could look like they at least made some sense and had some agreement to them. Instead we get to look at these three weather forecast models, European, GFS, & Canadian that provide 3 totally different looks which from a forecast standpoint would lead to 3 totally different outcomes.
These three maps show the the jet stream pattern at 18000 ft (500mb) and they all couldn’t be more different. However the one common element in all three models is the continuation of the upper air pattern over the Arctic which remains unfavorable for cold air to enter the United States though admittedly the GFS and the Canadian do have slightly colder looks to them. Those colder looks are nothing to get excited about through day 10.
Nothing has changed here with warm air continuing to flood Canada from coast to coast. Vortexes to the north are locked away with no sign of a breakdown through day 10. Now of course the GFS model begins to suggest some subtle changes beyond day 10 (yet again) and there are times I wish I could see the European beyond day 10 to see if it would at least agree. However I can’t see them so I am going to guess at this point that there is not much change beyond day 10. However I will say that per my own experience, patterns that lock in tend to last about 6 to 8 weeks before breaking down. If we use the mid October cold blast as the beginning of this large scale pattern, then we are now in week 7 of this pattern which tells me it is getting a little long in the tooth. 8 weeks takes us to mid December.
Now with regards to a pattern change I want to point the following out and I think it is really important. The change does not necessarily mean a change to cold and snow. It could change to something that might continue to keep cold air away from the east. The second thing is and I am thinking back to last year. There really were 2 pattern changes that occurred. The first one occurred after Christmas when we went to a colder look but it created a storm track well to our west. Though we did get colder the air masses were transient because there was not blocking. It wasn’t until mid January when we saw the monumental change that set up the unrelenting 8 weeks that followed.
My thinking is that perhaps we are going to see that again. If this pattern is indeed long in the tooth and it begins to truly break down, it may take another few weeks to see where we ultimately wind up. The first thing that needs to happen is that vortex complex up in the Arctic has got to break down. The second thing is that we have to see the North Atlantic Oscillation index go negative so we can get some blocking. Those to me are the 2 most imporatant things that need to happen. So far there are no reliable indications that this is occurring. In the meantime. please continue shopping in winter free conditions.