Blocking is going to be developing across the Atlantic but so far the way it is going to play out here is rather underwhelming and actually quite confusing to JOESTRADAMUS. The European model is doing its own job of confusing things both in the short and longer term with day and night runs flipping somewhat back and forth. Each run seems to have its own angle on what may or may not happen. Then add to that the usual number of faux tropical storms that may or may not be there especially by the Canadian model That makes figuring out this puzzle even more confusing.
I think the easiest part of this forecast is the second half of the week where it turns progressively colder through Sunday. Actually a cold front does pass through here Friday. The European night runs keep taking the low on the front near or to the south of us while afternoon runs are well north. We see another flip back north today. That is consistent with the other models.
All three models are shown here for Friday morning as a shot of cold air arrives for Friday night through Sunday. Im thinking this will produce widespread frosts and even some freezes for some. The Gfs is the warmest of the three models and the European and Canadian are both about equally cold. All three models would certainly mean no big storms at all through Sunday and probably no significant precipitation to speak of this coming week at least other than passing showers. Later Friday into Saturday there could be lake effect rain/snow showers especially in elevated areas.
Now beyond this period is when blocking begins to come into play and here a lot depends on where the block is with relation to everything else and how strong and how far west is the blocking. Every run does it differently and every run has a different outcome.
All three models a week from today begin to pull the trough to along or just east of the coast. The Canadian has the colder look to it because it is slower with pulling the upper low eastward. If the blocking high in the northeast Atlantic is stronger than forecast then that could indeed be the case and the cold shot will hold on a little longer. Also the Canadian as the stronger ridge in the west than the other 2 models as it seems to be weaker with a system in the southwest which crashes the ridge somewhat. Whether that is real or not we don’t know.
This beyond next weekend this is where we go back and forth..strong block (last night) weak block (today). The setup doesn’t appear to favor big storms as it stands now but who knows what the next runs will bring. I think I can see with fair confidence that the week ahead looks basically dry with just some minor interruptions Tuesday and Friday with some showers. Monday and Tuesday are warm. Wednesday through Friday is cooler..Late Friday through the weekend will be cold with first frosts and freezes likely in some areas. Beyond that we are in the land of uncertainty. The European has something approaching by day 10. The other models do not. This puzzle remains unsolved.
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