irma

Irma Near Barbuda 185 MPH Florida Southeast US Risk Increasing

Irma Near Barbuda 185 MPH Florida Southeast US Risk Increasing

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Irma Near Barbuda 185 MPH

Florida Southeast US Risk Increasing

The satellite loop of Hurricane Irma is dramatic to say the least. One of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic Basin (excluding the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico) with 185 mph winds, is about to pass directly over the island of Barbuda. On its present course WNW Irma is likely to pass over Anguilla on Wednesday and very close to the British Virgin Islands

irma

Longer term the next stop after the Leewards appears to be per the GFS model to be to the north of Puerto Rico and then it is on to the Bahamas where hurricane watches are posted. The more difficult part of the forecast comes after the Bahamas.

GFS MODEL SATURDAY 2PM 09/09/2017

IRMA

As the GFS model takes Irma near the North Central coast of Cuba it is from here that the models diverge. The GFS came in much further southwest than on its prior mid cycle run and close to its midday run. It turns Irma sharply northward. On this track Irma would pass barely to the east of Miami and then continue northward before moving inland in South Carolina. All through this stretch Irma remains a category 5 hurricane. Assuming that the GFS is correct about the intensity of the hurricane it is suggesting that it will respond to the mid and upper level flow rather than the flow at lower levels of the atmosphere. A weaker hurricane might move more to the west rather than northwest or northward.

GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST SUNDAY 2PM 09/10/2017

irma

The GFS has been much more accurate than the other models with regard to intensity. The European has a much weaker hurricane even in the early stages here. The hurricane is some 40 millibars higher (less intense) than reality. This could be affecting the European model’s handling of Irma with a more westerly course for a longer period of time. However bear in mind that all through the history of this storm, models have been consistently shifting southward on a daily basis. If the trough to the northeast off the east coast is weaker and the upper ridge a little stronger, this could be the difference for Florida between a near miss and a grazing to a full hit. Below is the 11am Advisory from the National Hurricane Center regarding position, winds, and all warnings and watches.

…POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA GETTING VERY
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.4N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM ENE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 50 MI…75 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…185 MPH…295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…916 MB…27.05 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Guadeloupe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

 

 

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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