IRMA MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST HARVEY RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST
IRMA MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST
HARVEY RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST
WEATHER IMPROVES LATE SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY
We have the remnants of Harvey such as they are moving through the northeast tonight while we have Hurricane Irma moving west southwest in the Tropical Atlantic. More on Irma in a bit but first we have the issue of the remainder of the holiday weekend and it does look like we could see improvement during Sunday from south to north with areas to the south of New York City seeing conditions drying out Sunday morning across South Jersey & Southeastern Pennsylvania. Areas to the north like Northern New Jersey, NYC, the Hudson Valley, Connecticut & Long Island probably seeing slow improvement Sunday afternoon. In the meantime we have rain coming up from the south tonight. The satellite loop shows the remnants of Harvey moving along to the northeast as the stubborn high pressure area to the north gradually gives way.
Regional & local radars tonight are busy with rain with some heavier downpours in the mix showing up in the yellow and red areas. This will continue overnight though the back edge is already moving out of Southeastern Pennsylvania and it should begin to move out of Southern New Jersey during the early morning hours.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
With the prospects of slow improvement Sunday we should see leftover clouds. Skies could brighten up in the afternoon especially in areas south of NYC. Temperatures should recover back at least into the 70s.
MONDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
Monday & especially Tuesday summer makes a brief comeback. Sunshine on Monday Labor Day with no rain should see temperatures in the 80s and Tuesday with a west southwest wind ahead of a cold front, temperatures could climb well up into the 80s.
TUESDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
HURRICANE IRMA CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE 110 MPH MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST
Hurricane Irma continues to move on a course to the west southwest as the hurricane begins to respond to a building high pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere to the north of the hurricane. The eye of Irma continues to come and go as the hurricane continues to undergo rapid eyewall replacement cycles. Those are almost impossible to predict and there could be changes in strength while these cycles continue. Irma is a small hurricane but as it continues to move to the west southwest it will be moving over progressively warmer water over the next few days and gradual strengthening should occur.
With regards to the future of Irma there are no important changes that we see going forward. The same uncertainties exist regarding the future with a threat to the Leeward Islands and in the long term regarding any threat to the Bahamas or the United States. Some weather models paint a dire picture while others are much more benign. Clearly the uncertainty level remains very high and will continue to remain very high over the next several days until we get closer to the end of next week. The short term question is whether the west southwest motion continues. This motion if it lasts long enough as some models suggest would increase the threat to the Northern Leeward Islands later Tuesday into Wednesday.
..IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 1135 MI…1825 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Irma.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Irma is moving a
little south of due west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Irma is currently a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). However, the hurricane is expected to grow in size during
the next couple of days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND