Irma Moving Northwest Strengthening Again

The eye of Hurricane Irma has now completely emerged off the north coast of Cuba and it appears that a northwest course has begun. The core of the hurricane remains well defined and while a little battered from the trip across the barrier islands of North Cuba, it is still impressive. The pressure rose just 15 mb which by that measure would make it a category 4 hurricane, however the winds are category 3. Usually in situations like this when the pressure and wind are out of sync, the wind speeds increase during the next 6 to 8 hours. The latest recon report is making it’s second pass and has found winds between 96-113 knots at flight level. The first 2 passes by the plane found a pressure drop of 4 millibars which if that is the beginning of a trend, could mean that Irma is strengthening rapidly.

SATELLITE LOOP

LOCAL RADAR MIAMI FLORIDA

LOCAL RADAR KEY WEST

The forecast track would be for the eye to cross the Florida Keys Sunday morning and then a landfall somewhere along the Southwest coast of Florida during Sunday afternoon. Any further westward shift will keep Irma over 90 degree water for a longer period of time. Winds across the Keys continue to run sustained at 30-45 mph with gusts to 55-65 mph and the core of the hurricane is still 125 miles southeast of Key West, Florida as of 4pm. From here on we pretty much watch the satellite, radar, and recon reports.

…EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA…
…MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from the Volusia/Brevard
County Line northward to the South Santee River.

The Hurricane Watch west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass has
been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning, and the Tropical Storm Watch
west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Fernandina Beach
to South Santee River.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the watches and warnings for
Holguin and Las Tunas provinces.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Suwanee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana
* Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest motion is
expected to begin tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to
move near the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours, and
will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is
expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves
away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust
of 70 mph (113 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches).