Tropical Forecast





    storm free Latest satellite loops show that the circulation of Tropical Depression 18 has gotten better organized and Tropical Storm Philippe has now formed. It is moving rapidly northward at near;y 30 mph. It is responding to the very deep upper trough that is developing in the Eastern US and you can see that trough extended far south into the Central Gulf of Mexico. Philippe will continue to move northward or north northeastward. Conditions are favorable for strengthening and in fact it may strengthen on Sunday as it responds to the intense upper trough to the west. Philippe I believe will eventually get absorbed by the powerful major storm that will develop in the East on Sunday and move to upstate NY by Monday morning. storm free


    ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...   SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 82.6W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.   DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37 mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS


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