Severe Weather Outlook

  • Big Changes Ahead Tropical Cyclone Development Risk Increasing East of Florida


    Big Changes Ahead Tropical Cyclone Development Risk Increasing East of Florida

    Big Changes Ahead Tropical Cyclone Development Risk Increasing East of Florida We are watching a weather front moving southward followed by a wind shift to the northeast. This is creating a wide disparity in temperatures today where we are seeing 60s in the Hudson Valley and 80s to near 90 in South Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. The front will be moving southward as the day wears on and this could create thunderstorm risk in the southern half of New Jersey (mainly south of Route 195) south and west. Overnight showers on the local radars have moved to the east while there are some scattered showers showing up west and north of the coast.

    LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

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    LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA storm free

    As the cold front sinks further south and winds shift to the northeast we will cool off considerably overnight and Friday is shaping up to be a much cooler day everywhere with partly to mostly sunny skies from NYC north and east and partly to mostly cloudy south and west of NYC. We will have to see how far the clearing line gets on Friday. Highs Friday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Big Changes Ahead Tropical Cyclone Development Risk Increasing East of Florida There is no real change in the outlook going forward for the weekend. The onshore flow relaxes. We start to turn warmer and more humid Saturday with clouds and the chance for a shower or thunderstorm late in the day into Saturday night. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80. Sunday and Monday will be very warm with some sunshine with highs in the 80s. Monday brings another front through here later in the day and back to the onshore flow and cooler weather next Tuesday.

    Tropical Cyclone Formation Possible East of Florida

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    Satellite pictures and loops this morning continue to indicate that low pressure is now beginning to develop just south and east of the Bahamas and this system has become better organized overnight and this morning. It is becoming increasingly likely that this system will develop into either a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next couple of days as the system moves to the west toward the Florida coast. Big Changes Ahead Tropical Cyclone Development Risk Increasing East of Florida The upper air pattern shows a strong ridge of high pressure from off the Southeast Coast of the US westward into Texas. This should drive this low eventually into the Gulf of Mexico where the steering could turn this more northward once it gets there. A few models suggest a weaker ridge and a track further east but we are discounting this for the time being. An Air Force plane is scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon.

    MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

    Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

 

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Check the latest for SE PA & Southern New Jersey and Northern New Jersey Long Island and Connecticut and Northeast Pennsylvania as well.
More on the week ahead check my JOESTRADAMUS page on the long range.