- Rain Arriving Weekend Cold Air Abates For Now
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Rain Arriving Weekend Cold Air Abates For NowWe are going to have a quiet calm dry work week with no storms and only minor changes from day to day. The only weather change for the work week will come Wednesday as a weak cold front drops southward from Southeastern Canada and a cold high builds into New England. We will hardly notice the change other than temperatures which will nudge up a bit into the 40s on Wednesday only to drop back into the 30s on Thursday. Tuesday through Thursday will see sunshine each day with just a few clouds coming into the mix on Wednesday as the front approaches and moves through. The jet stream pattern is changing for a relatively short period of time as ridges build in the east and west with a trough in the middle. Most of the energy is in the southern part of the trough. Cold air is locked up in Western Canada and points north and west as troughing dominates the pattern off the west coast and over Alaska. Cold air can't get into the east. What keeps this from getting too warm is the ridge in Eastern Canada and the trough out in the Atlantic. Friday low pressure comes out of the Southern Plains and heads into the Tennessee Valley. The Gulf of Mexico opens up with moisture as does the Atlantic which sets up for a soaking rain for the East Coast. With the flow somewhat split we could see this low ultimately wind up to our south which means onshore flow and rain arriving by early Saturday. This could be a serious situation regarding flooding for the Mid Atlantic and the Southeast which just had a record snowstorm. They will see all that snow washed away plus another potentially 2 to 3 inch rainfall. That spells serious flooding possibilities from Virginia to the Carolinas. This would be the equivalent of 4 to 6 inches of rain when you combine the two. For northeast the potential for a couple of inches of rain is on the table. There won't be any cold air when this arrives so it is all rain for everyone. As we get closer to Christmas there are a number of things that will be happening in the upper atmosphere that suggest that we should pay attention. While the upper pattern is taking a break from the colder pattern since mid October, there are suggestions that we could see that change back as we head toward the end of the month. Signals from the East Pacific Oscillation & the North Atlantic oscillation suggest another storm system around Dec 21-22 time frame. There won't be much cold air around for this but after it goes by we are likely to see the atmospheric chess pieces moving around at month end with perhaps a colder trend developing going into January. Whether it means chances for snow or not remain to be seen but the overall pattern change to wet and milder looks to be a temporary one at this stage of the game.
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