- Long Range Cold Stormy Late Month Questions
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK REMAINS COLDER THAN NORMAL
UPPER AIR SUGGESTS STORMINESS IN THE EAST LATE MONTH
BLOCKY SIGNATURE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ATLANTIC
The chatter in the land of social media has been out there for days so I think it is time to address where we are going in the long range. First off and let me make this clear for snow lovers. Time of year and climatology is pretty clear that October snowfalls that accumulate are rare and require near perfect conditions aloft for that to happen. It is also something that you probably won't catch until you are well inside the short range anyway so at this point we will cast that idea aside. I will say that the cold pattern might set up for an early snowfall in places where it might be a bit less surprising like in the elevated areas well inland like upstate NY, interior New England, and Western Pennsylvania but even here the puzzle pieces have to come together perfectly. With all that said let us examine what is happening aloft and where we may be going with all this.
Unfortunately the teleconnections graphic is from yesterday as it has not been updated yet. Based on what the models look like today it doesn't appear there is too much change in the general idea on what is going on in the atmosphere. Often times when we see teleconnections make big moves in either direction, it is an indication of an atmosphere in stress. The standout here is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO which crashes from a strongly positive (no blocking) to neutral and then negative. The EPO or East Pacific Oscillation rises from negative to positive at the same time. while the Pacific North America index or PNA remains strongly positive at the time when the other two indices are rapidly changing. This would point to the middle or latter part of next week as a possibility of something developing somewhere. Now lets look at how this plays out in the upper air using today's European model.The upper air pattern on the European this weekend shows the trough in the East with another shot of cold air coming in Sunday and Monday. This will the third shot in this sequence we have been in and will be the coldest of the 3 with frosts and freezes likely in most inland areas Monday and Tuesday morning. The ridge in the west is strong. We have a deep low in the Pacific pumping the ridge up. This keeps the cold shots coming. Now lets look at how this changes 3 days later which is a week from tomorrow. The biggest change is out in the Atlantic where a strong upper high develops north of the Azores. This keeps the trough locked up in the East. In the west we have a strong ridge in the Pacific NW. Energy is evident in the Southwest and that is going to get kicked along to the east. Meanwhile the strong upper low near the Aleutians continues to support the ridge in the west. Development of a low off the New England coast seems the likely outcome from this which would bring another shot of cold air into the East during the week of October 22nd. From here things get much more confusing as weather models create more changes. The most important one is in the west where the ridge breaks down later next week. This set up does not appear to be favorable for any kind of East Coast storm late month as it stands. The longer range question is whether the upper high can rebuild in the Northwest. It would seem to me that the southern system is more likely to more east rather than turn northward along the East Coast. The situation certainly appears muddled in the long term. At this point we are still watching these puzzle pieces maneuver. Remember just because signals are there does not necessarily mean that something is going to happen, or if it does it may wind up happening somewhere else. Today's run of the GFS suggests that the energy coming into the Northwest dominates as it moves eastward and we wind up with a strong Great Lakes storm with a cold front for the East Coast. The bottom line is that this is still too far out in the long range and at this moment I remain rather dubious about all this. Models are continuing to try and grasp with all the atmospheric changes going on and it is quite likely we will see more model changes ahead. It seems pointless to get worked up over all this at this point. Let's wait at least until the end of the week to see how models settle all the different issues at play. SUBSCRIBE TO PATREON FOR A WEATHER EXPERIENCE FREE OF ADS, EXCLUSIVE VIDEOS FOR MEMBERS ONLY AND MUCH MORE...STARTS AT $2 A MONTH..MESSAGE ME AT ANY TIME
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