Joe’s Forecast

  • Weather Pattern Looks Active Long Term


    Weather Pattern Looks Active Long Term trademark  

    Weather Pattern Looks Active Long Term

    While we continue to enjoy the beautiful weather that has been with us for the last 5 days and looks to last for 2 more, the seeds of pattern change have been planted and are beginning to sprout. At the moment we see the strong ridge in the East holding for just a little while longer while the trough in the west swings into action. It is in the far west Pacific however where the catalyst for all this is and that is with Typhoon Lan which is hitting Japan. weather pattern This typhoon will recurve to the northeast and head to the Bering Straits where it will merge with a developing extra tropical cyclone. This sets the ball rolling all across America where we go from a ridge in the East trough in the West to the exact opposite. This creates overall a colder more active pattern in the long term.

    WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TODAY'S JET STREAM

    weather pattern

    WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY 10/25/17 JET STREAMweather pattern

    You can see on the two upper air maps above the radical change that occurs over the next 4 days. From the standpoint of actual weather for us, a cold front will approach from the Midwest & Mississippi Valley and bring with it the first widespread rain here in many weeks. This will occur Tuesday into Wednesday. This will be followed but the first of several shots of cool air. Each shot will be progressively colder as each front passes through.

    GFS RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

    weather pattern After this system moves out to the east the jet stream pattern remains in place for a second strong upper air trough to dive southward into the Eastern US. This means another front with another shot of rain here next weekend.

    JET STREAM PATTERN FRIDAY OCTOBER 27 2017

    weather pattern The big difference this time around is that the pattern change is not a "one and done" scenario but rather because of some weak blocking developing in the North Atlantic, it holds the trough position in place allowing more energy to come into the Eastern US while the ridge builds out in the west. This will probably set us up for more rain next weekend in the East along with a gradual downward trend in temperatures. How long the pattern holds from here will depend on several factors but it seems it should hold into at least the first week of November if the longer range models are correct.    

    MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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