GFS Discussion

  • Warm Front Cold Front Combo Showers Thunderstorms Tuesday


    Warm Front Cold Front Combo Showers Thunderstorms Tuesday

    Warm Front Cold Front Combo Showers Thunderstorms Tuesday

    Another warm front cold front combination is headed our way with its usual forecast headaches that go with them. Will the onshore flow dominate and pin the warm front  somewhere in our region? That is always a battle in the spring and it is important because if the warm air gets in here, it increases the chance for thunderstorms when the cold front arrives. This is our dilemma for Tuesday. As for today we are dealing with low clouds though the sun is managing to break through in a few places. Temperatures are in the 50s to some lower 60s at midday and we could see a slow climb higher where the sun achieves some success.

    EASTERN SATELLITE

    storm free

    The satellite picture at midday shows low clouds around the area but the deck is not all that thick. To the northwest is energy that will likely trigger off some thunderstorms this late this afternoon and evening in the Middle Atlantic States where there is a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather over Maryland and Northern Virginia. Those storms should stay way south of us today.  

    REGIONAL RADAR

    storm free

    Late tonight the frontal boundary to the south will buckle again and the warm front will try to move northward with the chance for showers during the early morning hours into daybreak Tuesday. If the front is successful and it should be through most of the area, temperatures will reach into the 80s. Late in the day we see the risk for thunderstorms and there will be an increasing risk of severe weather.

    TUESDAY'S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES

    Warm Front Cold Front Combo Showers Thunderstorms Tuesday We discussed yesterday that the long range picture looks wet for the rest of this week and possibly into next week. A large high in the Atlantic stretches back to the Southeast Coast which opens an alley way for moisture to saturate the Eastern US. This makes for a cloudy wet pattern overall though it doesn't necessarily mean it rains all the time.

    NAM MODEL MIDDAY TUESDAY MAY 15, 2018

    Warm Front Cold Front Combo Showers Thunderstorms Tuesday Wednesday looks cloudy and cooler with the front through and an onshore flow that develops. There could be a passing shower or 2. The more important rain could come late Thursday from a system in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system for development into a tropical or subtropical storm. Regardless of development the mositure from this is going to move up the coast and rain could arrive here later Thursday and continue on and off into Friday.

    GFS UPPER AIR JET STREAM SATURDAY MAY 19, 2018

    Warm Front Cold Front Combo Showers Thunderstorms Tuesday

    The jet stream pattern in the East doesn't change much all week. Saturday we still have the ridge off the Southeast Coast and a trough across the Central Gulf States which keeps the alley way open for tropical moisture to move northward up the coast. This keeps the chance for showers in the forecast through the weekend.

    With regards to the potential for a tropical system developing in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico we have the latest on this from the National Hurricane Center plus some analysis.  

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