Showers Today Ahead of Cold Front, Rain Late Thursday Before Cold Arrives
We have a cold front that is moving through today and that has brought back cloud cover. This front is not very strong. There are some some scattered showers that are possible today with the best chances along the coast. However for most today it appears you will be sitting in lots of clouds with that chance for brightening or a sliver of sun. Highs will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most places which is not too far from average. The front passes through and then skies should clear tonight and another chilly high builds in for Wednesday into Thursday.
Regional radar is showing some showers along the coast this morning with a large gap to other showers in Western NY & Western Pennsylvania. The western showers will likely fall apart long before they reach here. The showers along the coast will primarily effect immediate coastal areas.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Wednesday will bring us back to sunshine with highs reaching just in the upper 40s and lower 50s. This high is much like the one that came in for this past weekend and yesterday and then slides out to the east Wednesday night; setting us up for the next weather system and cold front that approaches for Thursday.
This next cold front and wave of low pressure will trigger a very cold air mass from Canada to come in for Friday and the weekend (though we moderate on Sunday). Situations such as these come down to a race between cold air coming in and the wave going by with precipitation. It is all about timing. Most times the wave goes by first and then the cold air arrives. That is going to be the case here. Rain arrives Thursday late afternoon and evening from west to east and then ends by Friday morning around daybreak from west to east; before daybreak to the west of the coast and shortly afterward to the east.
It is rain for most of the area from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. You will have to go way up the Hudson Valley to get into the snow that is going to fall from this. The heaviest snow will likely be from Northeastern NY (north of I-90) into Northern New England.
The snow forecasts from the National Weather Service indicate an area of a coating to an inch rather far to the south in my view. If this happens it would come after the wave goes by and not ahead of it. Rain changing to snow before ending doesn’t happen often in our area. You need a rather solid set up and right now I’m not so sure that it is there. We will look at that prospect later today and re-evaluate if necessary. Then it is on to much colder air on the backside for Friday with a gusty wind and developing sunshine. However temperatures will drop into the 30s to near 40 Friday morning and likely hold there all day.
Saturday’s highs will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s with sunshine. Sunday looks nice with some sunshine as highs should bounce back into the upper 40s to around 50 or so.
Next week brings another trough dropping south from Canada with another cold high headed our way. This time around there is a chance we could see cold air return here later on Monday setting up for low pressure to develop along the coast somewhere Tuesday. We have been noticing this for days now and we still think this is a possibility early next week. Models will continuing to move all over the place but the general idea of of a digging trough is still on the table.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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