Scattered Showers Tonight As Cold Front Passes Back to Sunshine Tuesday Wednesday
The first cold front in well over a week is approaching. Ahead of the front we enjoyed a mostly sunny day. Temperatures made it to the middle and even a few upper 80s away from the ocean. A couple of hot spots did touch the 90 degree mark. The dew points have come up into the upper 60s yet given the time of year it is not like a hot humid July day. The air was actually breathable. The amount of moisture available in the atmosphere is limited. this evening and tonight we could see a few scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm but no severe weather is forecast for our area.
Tropical Storm Jerry is southwest of Bermuda by less than 400 miles. The exposed circulation is obvious on the satellite picture but we have noticed convection increasing on the north side. Dry air is being enhanced by Jerry to our east and this is part of the reason why the front to the west isn’t all that impressive.
We are seeing a couple of lines of developing showers across Pennsylvania and parts of upstate NY. Some scattered showers are coming into view on the local radars. These should not be too problematic and they may hold off until much of the evening rush hour is done.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Behind this cold front is a weak high that builds in for the next 2 days or so. Once showers move out tonight skies should partially clear by morning. Tuesday looks like a nice day with no worse than partly sunny skies. Highs will be 10 degrees or so lower than today as we top in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday appears to be a mostly sunny nice autumn day with highs in the 70s. Both days will feature lower humidity than the past 2 days.
Thursday’s next cold front is underwhelming because again the amount of moisture around here is going to be severely limited. Thursday should be no worse than partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. There would be a far outside chance for a brief shower but nothing more. Then another weak highs builds in for Friday and Saturday with sunshine Friday. Saturday late in the day could see a back door cold front drop southward and there might be a few late day showers with that though here too the front seems underwhelming. Highs Friday will be in the 70s. Saturday we could inch up to the upper 70s and lower 80s.
There is some debate as to whether that front actually makes it through here as an upper high will be building from the Southwest Atlantic westward into the Central Gulf States. If it does make it through it will stall to our south which sets up a cooler onshore flow for Sunday with clouds and temperatures just into the 70s. However this is not a guarantee yet and if the front gets hung up to our north, than the weekend overall will be warmer with no worse than partly sunny skies and highs both days into the 80s. We will need to resolve this for the weekend but for now Saturday at least looks ok with an underwhelming cold front approaching. No widespread rains are forecast through the next week which means our already dry conditions are likely to continue into next week.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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