Tropical Storm Watch Parts of East Florida Warnings NW Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island & a A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line. An Air Force plane is still investigating Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 which is 280 miles east southeast of Freeport in the Bahamas. It appears a center is trying to form under the cluster of thunderstorms that lies to the east. It still seems based on the observations that the system is elongated and not well defined. However thunderstorms continue to increase near where a center is trying to form. If it continues to organize this system could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight.
For the time being the main weather lies to the east of the Bahamas and we are not seeing any gale force winds being reported there. Along the Florida east coast the weather right now is uneventful and just a typical late summer day there.
We have been and continue to be somewhat underwhelmed but all this. Systems like this take their time getting going. Strong upper air winds persisted in this area for days but those upper winds are relaxing now and that should allow this system to reach tropical storm strength. The eastward reformation of the low center argues for a further east track in the longer term.
Hurricane model track guidance is further east today with only 2 bringing it ashore in Florida. Upper air winds along the east coast continue to support the idea of this system turning to the east or east northeast next week. Strong northwest winds in New England and offshore would keep this system from moving northward up the east coast.
I’m actually a bit more intrigued by another tropical system that is forecast to develop in the Tropical Atlantic that is underneath the narrow east west high that lies between it and the system off the Carolina coast. All these puzzle pieces have impact on the other so this is a much longer term issue which won’t become clear for many days yet. We will wait to see with the National Hurricane center does with the Bahamas system later today as more information comes in from the Air Force plane that is still out there.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.