Showers Downpours On Radar Moving Eastward
Severe Weather Pennsylvania to Southern New England
We have showers, downpours and maybe even a rumble or two of thunder on the radar moving eastward at the moment. Labor Day wraps up the holiday weekend with clouds showers and a few thunderstorms with one batch from now into lunch time and then another round of showers and possibly a thunderstorm later this afternoon and evening. While there have been a few breaks of sun in some places, clouds will dominate the weather scene today with highs from the mid to upper 70s from NYC east while further south it should reach into the 80s.
Radars both regional and local are rather busy with showers and some heavy downpours moving east. There is a second line of showers developing in Western NY and into Northwest PA and those going to arrive here this evening.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The Storm Prediction Center does have us at a marginal risk for severe weather today. I’m not expecting any kind of widespread outbreak but one or two isolated thunderstorms could bubble up to severe levels as the cold front moves through. The risk area covers everyone from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England.
This cold front will move offshore tonight and we should see improving weather conditions for Tuesday with sunshine coming back and highs reaching into the low and middle 80s. Wednesday will bring another front through with the chance for a shower or thunderstorm after some early sunshine. Highs Wednesday will be in the 80s.
Hurricane Dorian will be worth paying attention to for the end of the week with some wind and rain possible from Delaware to Southern New England and Long Island. By Wednesday afternoon Dorian will be just east of Jacksonville Florida and hugging the Southeast coast all the way up. A landfall somewhere in the coastal Carolinas seems likely though it should be noted that Dorian will likely weaken somewhat from its extreme nature we are seeing now to a category 3 or 2 hurricane by the time it reaches North Carolina. The wind field expands, and the rain shield expands as well.
By the time Dorian gets here it will look a lot like a strong winter time nor’easter with a large area of gales and heavy rains on the northwest side of the storm. It will track well south and east of Long Island as it passes off the Middle Atlantic coast. We will probably see rain and gales here Friday with the best chances of this from Coastal Delaware and Coastal NJ, to Southernmost Connecticut, Long Island into Southeastern New England. Gales could reach the immediate coast as well. This is an early view of things. If Dorian is a little more tucked in as to moves along the Carolinas, the outcome here will be a bit stronger with rain extending further northwest of the coast and stronger winds along the immediate coast. The map loop above shows the rain shield from Dorian and you can see where the heavy rains of several inches or more occur relative to the offshore track. Dorian will track along the southern edge of that heavy rain shield as it expands northeastward. What follows Dorian is a very nice cool dry air mass for next weekend and into next week so the payoff here may be a good one behind all this.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.