Tropical Storm Dorian Continues Westward Watches Sunday Leeward Islands
Tropical Storm Dorian formed this afternoon from a tropical depression in the Atlantic and it continues to move westward. Dorian is a small storm but it does have a rather well developed core. Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the next few days and Dorian could reach hurricane strength before reaching the Leeward Islands early this coming week.
We have a tighter enhanced satellite view below which shows the well developed core. There is some moderate wind shear going on which is tilting the convection somewhat to one side however that shear is forecast to weaken which will allow the storm to become more symmetrical and allow for strengthening.
Below is 8/24/19 11pm from the National Hurricane Center
…DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD…
…WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SUNDAY…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 635 MI…1020 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of Dorian.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 50.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). The tropical storm is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at a similar forward
speed for the next several days. On the forecast track, Dorian is
expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the
central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
The hurricane model guidance is all very tightly clustered with movement to the west northwest into the long range taking the storm over many of the islands and very close or over Puerto Rico and the Dominican republic. Conditions are favorable for strengthening until the storm reaches the Caribbean where wind shear issues and track over mountainous terrain could impact strength. It is too soon to speculate what happens down the road. There is an upper high to the north that will likely steer Dorian to the west northwest until further notice but exactly what if anything we will have to deal with in the longer term remains uncertain.
We are still watching the system near the Florida coast. Low pressure remains along the Florida east coast however most of the clouds and thunderstorms are out to the east with very little going on around the center so this system remains disorganized. Conditions are favorable for some development over the next few days once the low center moves out to the northeast. We believe this has a chance of becoming a tropical depression or a tropical storm as it moves northeast offshore the Carolinas. I don’t expect this system to become a threat to land or the East Coast as the upper air is not favorable for a system to move northward up the coast.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.