Severe Weather Risk Reduced Shifts South
Looking at weather conditions overnight one of the things that happens sometimes is if we see precipitation as a result of the warm front move through during the morning hours, you wind up cutting down on the daytime heating and that appears to be what will be happening today. As a result the risk for severe weather shifts to Southern New Jersey south into the Middle Atlantic states and the risk lessens considerably from Northern New Jersey to Southern New England.
We are seeing lots of clouds around this morning and humidity levels have come way up from yesterday as winds have turned south and south west. Brighter white cloud tops to the southwest are sitting over West Virginia into Western Pennsylvania and that area is moving eastward.
Regional radar shows some patchy areas of rain moving eastward across Pennsylvania. A larger area of rain is coming into view over West Virginia moving eastward. This is all ahead of the warm front and this action will essentially rob most of the potential daytime heating time from Northeastern Pennsylvania to Northern New Jersey to Southern New England. Some scattered downpours are showing up on the local radars as well.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The shift of the warm sector to the south has also shifted the area of Flash Flood potential further south and Flash Flood Watches are mostly over Central and Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania and watches have been taken down for some of the counties north of Route 78.
So here is what to expect. If you are outside the risk areas there will be some downpours and scattered thunderstorms into this afternoon and then perhaps another shower or thunderstorm or two into this evening. The further south you go into New Jersey the better chance you have of seeing strong or possibly a severe thunderstorm.
At this point we follow the radars and watch the satellite and daytime heating potential and see what we come up with for later today. For now we can say that not much will happen at least through this morning other than passing scattered showers. It will be very warm and humid today with highs reaching into the 80s. The main threat for thunderstorms will be in the late afternoon and evening with the strongest storms from Southern New Jersey to Maryland and Virginia.
This front shifts southward and stalls along and off the Middle Atlantic coast southwestward into the Southeastern US with higher pressures building to the north. We should see leftover clouds Wednesday with some breaks of sunshine developing during the day..though areas from South Jersey south may be in clouds for much of the day with the chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. The rest of the week it will be about the front to the south, the high to the north and the onshore flow in between. That will likely put us in clouds with some sun with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s but we won’t be seeing much if any rain for the rest of the week.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.