Severe Weather Risk Rises Further For Tuesday
One tool that has really worked well this summer has been the NAM model 10,000 foot level where we look at the winds. Specifically we look at the jet streaks which show bursts of gusty winds at that level. That has been a solid indicator of bursts of severe weather with thunderstorms and potential downbursts and rotation. The NAM for Tuesday is very impressive with a strong short wave moving through Tuesday evening and it shows some impressive jet stream bursts moving across Eastern Pennsylvania to New Jersey, NYC and Long Island as well as the Hudson Valley and Connecticut. We are going to be watching closely to see how far north a warm front gets Tuesday morning because that will determine the northern extent of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center raised the risk area yesterday and they have beefed it up further in their forecast for Tuesday added a rare enhanced risk area for Southeast Pennsylvania, Central and Southern New Jersey southward. Slight risk has been pushed northward into Northern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, Long Island, NYC & SW Connecticut with a marginal risk further north.
We have no issues today into tonight with sunshine giving way to some high clouds late today. Temperatures today will reach the 80s with mid to upper 80s South Jersey & Southeast PA southward. Humidity levels are low this morning but they will start to rise late today and particularly overnight. We could see a few passing showers or a thunderstorm late tonight into Tuesday morning as a warm front goes by.
Tuesday clearly is going to be a busy day. The NAM suggests north of the warm front could see downpours and thunderstorms for much of the day..that would be for areas north of NYC in the Hudson Valley and up into New England. Then of course it will be a matter of waiting for renegade thunderstorms to form in the warm tropical air followed by a main line of thunderstorms Tuesday evening.
This front moves through and weather conditions should improve on Wednesday but there will be leftover clouds and perhaps some leftover showers to deal with until the front sinks far enough south.. The front stalls out to the south of us for the rest of the week so that should at least make for some sun here Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be near or even a little below average for mid and late week. We will get into the longer range outlook later today.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.