Severe Weather Risk Raised This Afternoon Evening New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania
We figured yesterday that the Storm Prediction Center would up its game for severe weather risk for later today and indeed they have. We have a cold front that is crawling across Pennsylvania. We have a tropical air mass in place here from New England southward. We have an upper air trough that will be moving east and heading to the coast. The pieces for a severe outbreak are there. It compares to the outbreak last Monday but there are some differences that would suggest the outbreak will be a bit less. The trough isn’t as strong in the upper atmosphere. Also they daytime heating today may turn out to be a bit less so we will have to watch how much sun we get into midday and how high temperatures get.
The satellite picture this morning shows wide open clear skies along the coast from Maryland to New England while we do see clouds west across Pennsylvania to the New Jersey state line northeast into the Catskills and Hudson Valley where we had severe weather yesterday. Temperatures today will likely be a few degrees lower than yesterday with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 in the hot spots. We will just have to watch what the satellite and radars tells us regarding the extent and severity of the thunderstorms.
Look for some of what i call renegade thunderstorms to develop around midday. Those are widely scattered cells that pop up ahead of the main line of thunderstorms that will start forming this afternoon to the west. Timing should be after 3 or 4pm from west to east.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Looking at the upper air pattern for late this afternoon and evening, it seems that the the thunderstorm severity should be a bit less. I like to look at winds at 10,000 feet and looking for how models handle the winds. While the profile of gusty winds at this level would suggest thunderstorms and some strong individual cells, it doesn’t compare to what we saw last Monday. None the less the risk is there and we need to respect that. Some severe thunderstorms are likely as well as some local flash flooding possible in stronger cells. It might be that the best chances for severe weather will be from Central New Jersey southward into the Delmarva Peninsula.
We don’t see any changes in the outlook for the next few days. The front is going to stall out to our south and linger around into the weekend. This is going to keep clouds nearby but there is also going to be some dry air to the north that will try and bleed southward. Thursday look for clouds and some sun. It will be warm and somewhat humid with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s for both Thursday and Friday with the outside chance for a downpour or a thunderstorm. I think that is the best way to approach the next 3 days. Saturday brings another cold front that will be dropping southward from Upstate New York
Saturday we see clouds and some sun with highs in the 80s and the outside chance for a downpour or a thunderstorm but this front won’t have much with it. We will have to wait for it to pass through in order to bring in a shot of lower humidity that will start to move in for later Sunday and Monday. Overall the weekend to me looks fine. It should be dry for much if not all of the time during the two days..with seasonal temperatures in the 80s by day and lows in the 60s to near 70.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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