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Marginal Risk Severe Weather Late Today New Jersey Hudson Valley Eastern PA
We are battling the curse of the backdoor cold front which early this afternoon likes across Southern New Jersey & Eastern Pennsylvania. We do have an approaching cold front which should start pushing the warm front northeastward this afternoon but it does have a strong marine layer to fight against to the east. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the area of marginal risk for late this afternoon and evening to include Northwest New Jersey, most of Eastern Pennsylvania and the Hudson Valley to about the Connecticut NY line.
The areas to the east of the risk area have that stubborn marine layer which is holding firm for now. Temperatures are in the 40s from NYC east while in Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania southward we are climbing into the 70s. Unlike yesterday, it doesn’t seem the warm front will push east to Southeastern New England so many areas will be struggling just to get into the 50s.
The regional radar is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms developing in upstate NY moving eastward while the southern end of that line extends south of the Pennsylvania NY state border. No severe weather is being observed as of yet but some of these storms could produce some gusty winds when the front passes. The scope of the line is fairly narrow so the rains will be quick, briefly heavy, not overly problematic.
Keep an eye on the local radars after 3pm when showers and thunderstorms will start to appear. For now there isn’t much if anything going on.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Here is how it looks on the HRRR model between now and 8pm. Notice that the cells generally weaken as they reach the coast thanks to the marine layer stabilizing the atmosphere. Once the front passes weather conditions will improve and skies should clear out nicely tonight.
There are no other changes in the forecast for the rest of the week. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and chilly. Highs both days will be in the 50s to near 60 with some sunshine. Later Thursday a southeast wind develops which keeps temperatures in check. Friday the south wind will blow keeping temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s inland with arriving clouds and the chance for showers Friday night. Weather conditions improve Saturday. Sunday low pressure heads to the Ohio Valley with rain or showers arriving late in the day or Sunday night.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.