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Snow Sleet Rain Round Two Temperatures Tenuous Along The Coast
Tonight’s weather situation remains very tenuous for the coastal areas especially Long Island. Upper air temperatures are about as borderline as you can get. Temperatures have gone no where today and it wouldn’t take much to nudge the upper air temperatures down as little as 1 degree to create an upside surprise. A storm is going to develop off the North Carolina/Virginia coast and head east northeast and slowly intensify. Snow will likely develop tonight between 9 and 11pm and end tomorrow morning after daybreak.
The colder HRRR model along with the NAM model support that one degree lower profile. For now I’m leaving my numbers alone for tonight but bear in mind that there are two areas of risk. An upside surprise is possible for all areas which would require amounts to be doubled. The second risk is for areas across Southern and Eastern Connecticut where if this storm deepens faster than modeled, amounts there could be locally higher.
Just inland of the coast it will be mostly snow and that part of the forecast is easier. This storm will impact the final track of the system for Sunday night and Monday. It is important to watch this closely tonight and snow amounts will be adjusted on the fly.
We are beginning to see the precipitation moving into Virginia and North Carolina on the regional radar while local radars are quiet for now. Activity will begin to increase this evening.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
One of my concerns is the lack of wind tonight. This could make low level temperatures an even tougher problem in some areas. That could create some pockets of freezing rain overnight making things even more difficult.
Once this pulls away tomorrow morning from west to east we should see improving weather conditions Saturday afternoon with sunshine and clouds. Temperatures will be in the 30s. No issues are forecast Saturday night and then we transition to Sunday as the third storm system of this series makes its move east. The outcome of this storm will totally depend on whether this system tonight explodes as it moves eastward. If that happens you can expect the Sunday system to be suppressed colder and further south making it mostly snow for all areas with changes to rain only along the immediate coast of Central and South Jersey. We won’t have a handle on this until tomorrow when we see what the outcome of tonight is with the lead system.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.