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Sunday Night Monday Morning Snow Forecast More Snow Wednesday
We being the holiday weekend with sunshine as clouds overnight have finally moved out. There is a weak storm moving through North Carolina and Southern Virginia producing rain to the south with some snow on the northern end of this precipitation shield. This system is moving out to the east and will have no impact here. We should see sunshine all day. Temperatures won’t be going far today as they hold in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
The precipitation to the south passes to the south and won’t get into the range of local radars today or tonight and it should be long gone by evening. Skies will be clear tonight with Sunday morning lows in the 20s. Then we set up for the next storm system which will be moving further north than today’s Sunshine will give way to arriving clouds with highs in the 30s.
The map above was the snow forecast I came up with yesterday and I am not making any changes to it for the time being. A weakening primary low heading out of the Ohio Valley moves to Northern West Virginia and weakens while a secondary develops along the coast. With marginal cold air around models are having some trouble with this. In a more active winter would like be forecasting double what is on the map at the moment but this winter every snowflake has been a struggle so I’m loathe to move numbers up or down at this point. I do think there is the chance for a little upside here if the temperatures are a degree or so colder especially just inland and on Long Island.
Once this system pulls away on Monday we will see colder air come in Monday night and Tuesday which sets us up for the next storm system for Wednesday. This storm system will likely play out in similar fashion to last Tuesday with snow to sleet to freezing rain and then rain toward the end of the event. It will also play out much the same way model wise I believe with bullish snow outputs going lower and lower as we get closer to the event time which will be late Wednesday into Thursday.
This is another case of a primary low to the west of the Appalachians and a weak secondary along the coast. If it plays out in similar fashion this would be a 1-3/2-4 inch event with total snow and sleet. When you look at the GFS for Wednesday/Thursday it looks almost identical to last Tuesday.
So first things first will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Then we move on to Wednesday. We can see that neither system poses to be overly problematic and we don’t see any change in the overall pattern in the long range either. It pretty much is more of the same in the snow-less winter from Portland Maine to Boston to NYC to just south of Philadelphia.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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