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2 Weather Systems In Play First Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Everyone is in the deep end about Sunday and forgetting that we have a weather system for Thursday night and Friday that will impact the outcome of the Sunday system. So let’s look at that first before we start figuring out the second. We have cleared out nicely as a whole has blown wide open on the satellite loop separating our area from clouds to the east and to the northwest. If you look closely at the satellite loop you can clearly see the snow cover from yesterday’s snow in Southern New Jersey, Southern Pennsylvania southward. Radars are silent now and will remain so into Wednesday. A cold front will pass through here Wednesday and we will see some lake effect snows in upstate NY & Western Pennsylvania when that front passes.
It is pretty straight forward into early Thursday. Skies will be clear tonight and it will be as Joe Rao calls it “meat locker cold” with light winds. Lows inland will be in the teens to some single digits with the warmer urban centers in the lower 20s. Tuesday looks nice with some sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 30s. We will reach into the 40s Wednesday with some sun and clouds until the front passes and then down to the teens and 20s into Thursday morning.
Clouds will increase Thursday with highs in the low to mid 30s. This system is not overly impressive at the moment but it will have a solid area of snow moving eastward as warm air advances into the cold air mass over the northeast. That cold air retreats somewhat but some of that cold air will be stubborn. Given the time of year you would have to favor some snow developing here Thursday night into Friday morning. I’m a day away from an early call but this is the kind of system that might produce a coating to a inch or 2 near the coast and a few inches or a bit more inland north and west of NYC. I’m giving a general overview here at this point. This system is important because it will impact the second system behind it. You can see that low appearing on the map in the middle left.
Weather models are doing what they are supposed to be doing at this point which is confusing everyone, and angering the snow weenies. Yesterday we discussed the key to this would be the northern and southern jet and whether they phase or don’t phase. Today’s models run went the phase route as the GFS shows but the European remains unphased in its colder view today.
Right now going over the actual evolution of the weather Saturday night and Sunday is rather pointless. We still have another few days to work all this out and clarity could start to appear by Thursday regarding exactly how this all plays out.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.