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More Rain New Years Eve Pattern Change Evolving Long Range
We still have a little more work to do with today’s rain. Satellite and radar loops below show that while there are some breaks in the rainfall there is one more surge of rain to play through. Flood Watches remain in effect across New Jersey and we have seen some flood advisories posted in a few areas from Trenton southwest into Northern Delaware. Rainfall amounts have been on the order of an inch or so in most places and another quarter to half inch in most areas seems likely.
The weather front responsible for this is slowly moving eastward. The northern part of the front is moving a bit faster than the south. Rain has ended for the most part in the Hudson Valley, Northeast Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey. The area that is over Virginia, Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania will slide east northeastward into this evening. Gradually we will see all the rain come to an end during the evening hours from west to east.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
At least the weekend is dry with some sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday. Colder air in the Plains behind their blizzard will be heading here bringing temperatures down from the 50s today to leftover temperatures near 50 on Saturday. Sunday will be nice but chilly with most highs in the low to mid 40s.
MORE RAIN COMING IN TIME FOR NEW YEARS EVE
There is no rest for the weary in this unrelenting wet pattern we are in. The next weather system is heading here for New Years Eve. Monday starts dry with arriving and thickening clouds. The front that is coming through today stalls out across the Gulf States and another wave develops on it and moves northeastward. Rain arrives mid to late afternoon and it will be raining when then ball drops at midnight. Much like this rain event it will start out raw and chilly on Monday with temperatures in the 40s and then they rise into the 50s into New Years Day. The rain should be over with by daybreak with some sun and clouds developing with highs in the 50s to near 60. Then it turns much colder behind it as the pattern continues to change and evolve.
The front with this system will stall out in the Gulf of Mexico and yet another wave develops and heads northeastward. This one might have a bit more punch to it as it heads up the East Coast at the end of next week. How this plays out remains to be seen however we are seeing the upper air pattern across North America continuing to evolve.
The overall pattern in the long range is gradually taking on a colder look but the process of a pattern change is a grinding one and not a matter of simply flipping a switch. The European model above for next Wednesday shows the northern jet bringing down some colder air but it also shows a rather vigorous southern stream as well. The strength that the European shows at this early stage is highly suspect however we do see models showing more precipitation late next week. All of this is taking place while we see major changes up in the stratosphere. Those changes do suggest a cold stormy pattern gradually taking hold across the Eastern US but there are always numerous and forever changing puzzle pieces in the long range forecast.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.