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Cold Air Will Drain Southward Sunday Watching Closely
The storm system that is now bringing lots of rain to the Southeast US back westward to the Ohio & Tennessee Valley is making its northward move. Tonight we will see rain move northward but it will only get so far north before it comes to a grinding halt. Rain will likely reach Northern New Jersey, NYC & Long Island before a cold high to the north starts to build southward and dry air begins to drain down the Hudson Valley. This will shut the rain off tomorrow morning and much of the day Saturday we will be sitting in lots of clouds with a developing northeast wind. Temperatures will slowly settle in the 40s and trend downward Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain will be overspreading the area Saturday night into Sunday and that is where the forecast issues begin for inland areas.
This is another situation where we have a cold high building to our north and a northeast wind will drain southward. This is likely to bring temperatures to near or even below freezing Sunday morning across Northwest New Jersey & the Hudson Valley (especially north of Route 84). The cold air will also drain south to NYC & Long Island as well as Central New Jersey where we will see temperatures settle in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Where it goes below freezing we have to consider the possibility of freezing rain and sleet, and as the day wears on even some snow will likely get involved. Low pressure develops off the Delaware coast and then slowly heads northeastward during the day Sunday.
Unlike the system from back in mid November this one is not forecast to intensify much until it heads further offshore. It moves northeastward which will likely prevent cold air from draining all the way south to the coast. Coastal areas will have a gloomy cold raw rainy day with temperatures in the 30s. Inland we will see rain going over to a mix Sunday morning lasting into the evening before the system pulls away.
We will be watching model trends closely through the weekend. The temperatures in the upper atmosphere Cold air comes in for Monday and Tuesday with improving sky conditions and some sunshine. Later next week it appears that another front and a low developing on it could bring rain here Thursday into early Friday followed by colder air for next weekend.
For those of you cheering loudly for a White Christmas the GFS last night and today offers the chance of a diver coming from the north and heading toward us. This is far out in the long range to take seriously though the upper pattern would suggest that we could see something try to happen either late next weekend or early next week. I throw this out there for you. There is plenty of room for models to maneuver or eliminate the possibility all together.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.