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WEEKEND WEATHER RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
NEXT STORM FROM CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST FOR MIDWEEK POSSIBILITY
ANOTHER STORM FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
The weekend is just about here and November closes as a “snovember to remember”. For many areas the Northeast, Northern Mid Atlantic & Midwest this was the snowiest November in many years and for some places the snowiest November ever! For NYC it was the coldest November in 21 years (1997). 6.4 inches of snow (all on November 15th) was the earliest 6 inch snowfall every observed. Now it is onward to December which arrives Saturday on a raw cold damp day.
Clouds have moved in rather quickly so our one day of partial sunshine this week has been it. Clouds will thicken up today. We have a weak disturbance moving eastward evident on the regional radar with some rain and snow showers. This is going to remain weak but some scattered rain or snow showers are possible late in the afternoon into this evening. It should not amount to much. Thanks to the clouds, temperatures today will just be into the 40s.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Now comes the weekend and we have the next storm moving into the Midwest. The actually surface low is well to our west with a long reach to the coast. The long crowbar arm of the front with this system will be lifting northward. A warm front approaches but we also have a cold high developing in Northern New England. Dry air moves southwestward tonight from New England and skies may actually clear out overnight into Saturday morning. Overnight temperatures will be cold with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Saturday starts with sunshine but gives way to arriving clouds with highs just into the 40s. The day side will be rain free but Saturday night into Sunday morning we will see rain as it sweeps up from the Southwest. To the North of NYC in extreme Northeastern Pennsylvania northeast through the Catskills and up the middle to upper Hudson Valley, there could be some freezing rain at the onset. Temperature will hold steady or even rise Saturday night into Sunday morning as the warm front struggles to move through. Rainfall from this system will be in the 3/4 inch to 1.25 inch range.
The issue for Sunday is if and when the warm from gets through. Showery rains might continue into early afternoon before skies attempt to brighten up Temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s assuming that front gets by. Sometimes these fronts get hung up and it is quite possible that areas from New Jersey west into Pennsylvania see genuine improvement Sunday afternoon while areas north and east of NYC struggle all day.
December begins as November ends, active! While we have our issues this weekend, another storm will be moving into California on Saturday will head east. This system is impressive on the satellite this morning and we wait for it to move onshore to see how models handle it. There is the additional puzzle regarding our weekend system as it will have a big impact on how far south this next low tracks. Three players on the map above will all have impact. Firstly there is the northern jet which is less dominant and further north. This allows more room for the vigorous short wave #1 to go to work and develop a low off the Southeast coast. The problem is short wave number 2 behind it that is basically kicking it along and not allowing it to lift to the north or at least not allowing it to lift to the north enough, It won’t take much to lift it northward if the second short wave is a little weaker and the lead one a bit stronger. A minor adjustment in the north could effect this either way. Stay tuned!
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.