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COLD SHOT COMING THANKSGIVING DAY
STORM SIGNALS END OF THE MONTH
While the weather pattern over the next 7 days is a relatively quiet one there will be some volatility that will bring an unwanted guest Thanksgiving day. A show of cold air is aiming to move into the East around midweek and bottoming out Thanksgiving day with morning lows in the teens and 20s and daytime highs Thursday just into the 30s. Many inland areas won’t be getting out of the 20s! This makes for a cold turkey day indeed when the average high is still close to 50.
Tonight we are seeing some patchy clouds moving in on the satellite loop but it is intermixed with clear skies as well. Temperatures will likely hold above freezing overnight except in areas that manage to stay clear with light winds. Those areas are radiating.somewhat but there does not appear to be anything exceptional going on as far as low temperatures are concerned. Radars are quiet and there are no issues tonight or during the day Sunday. We will likely see more arriving clouds on Sunday with temperatures in the 40s.
Sunday night into Monday a weak frontal boundary approaches. With the air too warm for snow and the boundary on the weak side we will see some rain showers possibly passing through later Sunday night and they will be scattered around on Monday. Temperatures should reach the mid 40s to near 50.
That boundary zone will hang right over us until a second wave develops Monday night and moves through Tuesday morning. There will be some showers with that but north of the frontal boundary there could be some snow in the Catskills, Northeastern Pennsylvania, northeastward into the middle Hudson Valley and Northern Connecticut into New England. Monday’s highs will be in the 40s.
For those areas a coating to a couple of inches could occur Monday night into Tuesday but as long as the frontal boundary remains close to NYC, there is no issue for the vast majority of our area with the exception of perhaps Dutchess County on the NY side and Litchfield County and Connecticut northward. We will keep an eye on this just in case but we don’t anticipate it being further south. Once that wave goes by the cold air starts to come in later Tuesday with the coldest air arriving Wednesday night into Thursday morning. No snow is forecast during this stretch so it will be cold but dry.
LONG RANGE STORM SIGNALS CONTINUE
Weather models in the long range are continuing to point to possible storm signals toward the last days of November though of course the details are no where close to being set in stone.Tele-connection signals continue to favor a cold blocky look to the overall pattern with a strong upper high in the west. This is telegraphing some sort of storm development in the East around November 29-30.
The rapid decent of the Pacific North America index toward the zero line and the rapid ascent of the NAO index to the zero line are pointing to large changes in pressure in North America and therefore ths storm signal. These indices however do not tell us anything about where this is all going to take place and where the upper troughs will be setting up. We can only pay attention to these signals in a broad sense at this point and then watch how weather systems progress across the US late next week and beyond.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.